In the midst of a heated conflict between the United States and China about economic and trade disputes, the Wuhan pneumonia and Hong Kong's National Security Law, former US National Security Advisor Bolton tossed a shock bomb. His White House memoir The Room Where It Happened will be officially published today, but part of it was revealed by the media last week. Among them are shocking details of Trump's attitude towards China, including his utmost reluctance to intervene in Hong Kong’s affairs during the early days of the Hong Kong protests last year for the reason that he did not want to have the progress of the Sino-US trade negotiations, to which he attached great importance, affected. The book also points out that Trump, who has repeatedly made anti-Muslim remarks, has expressed to China that he agreed to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) suppression of Muslims in Xinjiang. In a recent media interview, Trump also admitted that he postponed the sanctions against the CCP for suppressing Muslims in Xinjiang in a bid to ensure that the trade negotiations will make progress. All this information is contrary to Trump's tough stance against China in the past.

Trump of course denied the authenticity of Bolton's allegations. He criticized that Bolton’s new book is awash with fictitiousness and defamation, and his sole reason for publishing it was to take revenge on Trump for firing him. However, from an outsider’s perspective, Bolton's accusations of Trump are traceable. Hong Kong people with a good memory should remember that Trump said many times last year that the Hong Kong protests were affairs between China and Hong Kong. He also said something like "I am confident that President Xi can solve the problem properly", which proves that his being reluctant to step in is not a secret. As for the CCP's suppression of Xinjiang Muslims, it is not an issue that Trump really cares about with his well-known aversion to Muslims.

Checks and balances ensure national security

However, in recent months, Trump has been lashing out at the CCP regarding the issue of Hong Kong and has signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act and the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act, opening the door for the United States to imposing sanctions on the CCP for suppressing Hong Kong and Xinjiang. These are also certitudes. So, how do we interpret it? Bolton's new book may not be totally true, nor is it totally fictitious. With the contradiction between truth and fiction, how do they make any sense? The key lies in the subtlety of the American political system – a separation of powers and a check-and-balance mechanism, which eventually makes it impossible for any individual in the system to work his or her will upon the overall situation.

It is true that the President of the United States is entitled enormous power over foreign affairs, but not everything is under his command. In the House and the Senate of the US Congress, various foreign affairs committees are all over the place, with each member of the Congress having issues about which he or she is concerned. In addition, although the Department of State is an administrative division led by the President, it has a colossal structure under the rule of which there are diplomatic organizations with expertise in professional researches and judgments. Moreover, private think tanks, scholars, and the business sector are also influential in US foreign policies. In other words, American diplomatic power is actually decentralized, and any major change in direction must be born out of this complex and highly balanced system through interactions among its stakeholders. It cannot be changed at an individual’s discretion.

Currently, the tough stance towards China is a rare bipartisan consensus in the US Congress. In recent years, all the bills against the CCP have been results of cross-party consent, and the professional diplomats in the State Council have repeatedly conveyed their concern about the Hong Kong issue. Furthermore, the US academic sector has made clear its stance after Xi Jinping’s amendment of China’s Constitution that the United States’ policies toward China need to be adjusted. This is how the direction of getting tough with China was formulated. The vibes are constituted by both the ruling class and the grassroots, and the unity cannot be denied by the President at will. That is why the author asserted in his article last week that irrespective of whether it is Trump's re-election or Biden's victory, US' tough attitude towards China will not change. No matter how much importance Trump attaches to the trade negotiations, he eventually has to intervene in Hong Kong and Xinjiang issues. The same will happen to Biden if he comes to power. Under the system of the separation of powers, Biden cannot defy US’ consensus for his family business in China. By the same token, the "Abandon Taiwan Theory", over which Hilary Clinton and some scholars had deliberated, ended up an armchair strategy. Likewise, for democratic countries to pursue victory in foreign affairs, winning support from the local majority is always prior to the opinion of the ruler.

American politics is operated by a democratic mechanism structured from bottom up, with power decentralization and checks and balances all the way down the line. It inherently casts aside the risk of any individual committing “treason” at will. On the contrary, the CCP runs an authoritarian regime in which decisions are made by a leader, and lower-level officials and the plebs are not allowed to query, thus the leader is entitled the privilege of committing “treason”. When Mao Zedong drew a line on the map, the part of Changbai Mountain was given to North Korea; when Jiang Zemin drew on it, the huge area on outer northeastern China was occupied by ​​Russia; and now when Xi Jinping placed an order, even the number of sacrificed soldiers in safeguarding the country and their names became a state secret. No wonder the national security of such a country is exposed to attack.

(Lam Hoi, Journalist)

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