Editorial: How Should Taiwan Weather the Ice Storm of the US and China | Apple Daily Taiwan
In the diplomatic history of the U.S. and China, the “Alaska Battle” will surely be an important page. Diplomats of the highest level from two world powers, the U.S. and China, completely discarded diplomatic protocols and etiquette in front of the entire world to attack each other’s countries with fierce, sharp, and pungent words. They were almost cursing and pursuing a brutal end. Even if they were putting on a show, it will take quite some time and effort to change the scene from icy confrontations back to warm cooperations. The audience who has been deeply drawn into the play is now in high spirits, and both Antony Blinken and Yang Jiechi have used extreme words with confidence. Public opinions and the people from both countries applauded loudly, so the one to concede earlier would be committing political suicide.
The U.S. and China will have to play at least a few rounds to test each other’s strength, determination, and the capacity of taking blows to the limit before they could sit down and negotiate pragmatically for compromises.
In this process, the possibility of misjudgment and misfires certainly exists, but both the U.S. and China are nuclear powers, and the subjects of disputes do not threaten the immediate survival of either, so the possibility of a full-scale military conflict is extremely low. If an inevitable “physical collision” would happen, it would be regional, partial, and short-lived, and the two sides often resort to strategic containment, economic sanctions, and diplomatic defense. But no matter how the U.S. and China will weather this ice storm, it will be difficult for Taiwan to stay aloof. Before the U.S.-China talks in Alaska, the Minister of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, Chiu Tai-san, said that the two sides of the Strait should promote exchanges under the umbrella of “constructive ambiguity,” which can also be regarded as Taiwan’s preparation for a cold winter of unpredictable length.
Yang Jiechi Shouted Abuses to the Content of the Chinese Masses
It is not surprising that both the U.S. and China have taken tough stances at the Alaska talks. Biden must use this to erase the impression of being too weak toward China that Trump has strongly attached to him. In addition to lobbying countries to form an anti-China alliance, as a “big brother,” he must also publicly demonstrate firmness and strong resistance to China. The Alaska talks are an excellent occasion. On the one hand, they warned Beijing in the face. On the other hand, they told the relevant countries that Washington is determined to fight against China, and their allies should pick one side. Those who refuse to cooperate should beware.
Beijing expected the U.S. to adjust its China policy established during the Trump administration as soon as possible. However, after Biden took office, the serial criticism against China before the Alaska talks, the sanctions against Chinese officials, and the high-level diplomatic and military visits to Japan, Korea, and India all showed the stance and scheme of the U.S. against China. Beijing could completely predict that it is impossible to get any deal out of the U.S. in Alaska, and there are also internal doubts in China over the necessity of going to Alaska for self-induced humiliation.
And since the U.S. didn’t give face or benefits, Beijing simply used the talks as a stage for Yang Jiechi to perform a play that says “the U.S. is not qualified to condescend to China, and the Chinese do not buy this.” They showed an attitude both internally and externally that they would no longer look up to the U.S. as superior. Although the international community does not necessarily follow Beijing’s practice, Yang Jiechi’s curse has satisfied the nationalist sentiments of many Chinese masses.
The political systems and peoples’ cultures of the U.S. and China are different, but patriotism and nationalism play important roles in the politics of both countries. Even the one-party dictatorship of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the totalitarian Xi Jinping face internal nationalist sentiments. There will be the pressure of the “tail wagging the dog,” and if such sentiment further escalates into the Boxer Rebellion in Qing Dynasty, the space for the Beijing authorities to make decisions would inevitably be limited. It will hinder China’s handling of the extremely thorny international situations and cross-Strait relations. The CCP should be aware of the risks.
It is worth noting that the U.S. intends to strengthen and promote the role of Japan in the triangular relationship between the U.S., China, and Taiwan. The Japanese government is discussing whether Japan can issue a protective order to protect U.S. warships, aircrafts and other weapons if there is an “emergency situation in Taiwan.” It is still in the “discussion” phase, but it will impact the current U.S.-China relationship, in which the two are now looking daggers at each other with a cross-Strait relationship that lacks mutual confidence, given the historical feud of China against Japan’s invasion of China in World War II, their possible misinterpretation of the U.S.-Taiwan cooperation and the military alliances among the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan, and the resulting nationalist sentiment that is taking shape, with uncertainty as to whether Beijing would escalate it or have the capacity to contain it.
The antagonism between the U.S. and China is difficult to resolve in the short term, and it is not yet at its worst. Taiwan is one of the elements in the opposition between the U.S. and China, and the confrontation between the two powers is both a risk and an opportunity for Taiwan. However, unlike the previous Cold War between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, which was a combination of capitalist and communist ideologies, in the current confrontation between the U.S. and China, both sides are at the height of patriotism and nationalism. The issue of Taiwan covers all the most sensitive areas, and there are many subtle details that are not understood or cared about by the international community. Therefore, if Taiwan is to ensure its own safety and interests, it must strengthen its own power and role. The principles must be firm, our mind must be clear, and our strategies and gestures must stay flexible. It is not easy to have any of the above four qualities, but Taiwan must manage to joggle them all. Following instructions, Chiu Tai-san proposed “constructive ambiguity.” Although the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council commented coldly and said it’s “wordplay without sincerity,” it is still an indicator worthy of follow-up observation.
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