Recent incidents show that President Tsai Ing-wen has faced setbacks in less than a year of her second term. Is it a sign that she is becoming a lame-duck president?

Earlier this month, KMT Legislator Ma Wen-chun (馬文君) proposed a freeze of NT$5 billion on indigenous submarine development. KMT Chairman Johnny Chiang (江啟臣) proposed a freeze of NT$2 billion. Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Lo Chih-cheng (羅致政) proposed a freeze of NT$1 billion. Tsai expressed concern on December 12, saying this would make the international community believe that Taiwan has no determination to defend itself. On December 16, she lashed out at her party members at a meeting of the DPP Central Standing Committee, asking the party’s legislative caucus should strongly defend the submarine program. Some came to Lo’s rescue by saying the stall of NT$1 billion was OK’d by the Navy. But Tsai refused to accept the explanation. Instead, she responded angrily and said if the Navy did approve the freeze, she would “definitely look into it”.

Lo explained that the budget for the Defense Ministry would be approved as long as the ministry submitted a report on the vessel project. But KMT said it would unfreeze the budget after the report was “submitted and agreed upon”. Lo made it clear that he was “supervising not cutting” the budget, implying he was trying to bail the Navy out.

How can “a woman in a skirt” make a good commander-in-chief? The question has been raised since Tsai participated in the presidential race. As Taiwan’s first female president, Tsai has paid foremost attention to national defense, especially the development of the indigenous defense industry. So much so that she is concerned over the freeze.

The defense budget stalled in Legislative Yuan can’t be blamed on Lo alone. Rather, it should be blamed on Tsai’s administrative staff whose policy formulation and implementation have gone awry. In 2024, Tsai will step down, while other political elites across the board will still have to fight to advance their career. Since each has their own concerns, they are not likely to go in tandem with her administration.

That’s why the lame-duck crisis arises. The signal is not only revealed in the national defense budget, but also in other policies.

The powers granted to the National Human Rights Commission in the Control Yuan are now under review in the Legislative Yuan, triggering the conflicts between the two bodies. The bill allows the NHRC to fine those who do not cooperate with investigations. It also requires the Executive Yuan, the Legislative Yuan and the Judicial Yuan to offer advice and explanations. These articles are seen as an expansion of the power of the Control Yuan, infringing on the Executive and Judicial powers. DPP legislative caucus whip Ker Chien-ming (柯建銘) lashed out at the bill, saying it was an “unconstitutional monster”. But he later withdrew a motion after meeting with Chen Chu (陳菊), the head of the Control Yuan. NHRC, however, took a firm stance, stressing that a vote by the NHRC members was needed before withdrawing the “monstrous” statute.

Tsai is a driving force behind the establishment of NHRC, and the Legislative Yuan passed its organization statute. NHRC is seen as a move to kick off the transformation of the Control Yuan. But the Commission has turned autonomous, with the right to do what it wants. The Control Yuan makes decisions by consensus, and the head is not allowed to dictate. The NHRC is not 100 percent made up of DPP members, but some of them are nominated by Tsai and strongly advocate the power expansion of the commission. The term of the current members expires in 2026, two years longer than Tsai’s term. It makes sense that they use the Commission to advance their career, but it is dealing a blow to Tsai’s administration team.

Legislator Su Chiao-hui, Premier Su Tseng-chang’s (蘇貞昌) daughter, led a proposal to downgrade the Digital Development Department to the Digital Development Commission. The creation of DDD is proposed by the Executive Yuan and finalized by Tsai. Su Chiao-hui’s move has raised the question of whether Tsai and Premier Su are widening their differences? When asked about his comments on his daughter’s proposal, Su said indirectly and subtly that the reorganization of the Executive Yuan must “respect the opinions of lawmakers”. Following the controversy over his use of triple stimulus vouchers to purchase comic books and the print of Cabinet’s tax ID number on the receipt, Su Chiao-hui immediately stood up to defend her father. In fact, both have teamed up for a number of disputes. For a big issue like the reorganization of the Executive Yuan, it is unlikely that Su Chiao-hui won’t let her father know before making the motion. If so, wouldn’t it be “disrespectful” to the Executive Yuan? It makes many wondering if the President and the Executive are taking different paths.

The import of U.S. ractopamine-laden pork will be decided in the Legislative Yuan next week. Tsai instructed that the ban must be lifted. As the DPP has a large parliamentary majority, it will not be difficult to pass the import. But the voice against ractopamine-laden pork is rising with KMT behind the campaign. The DPP lawmakers and mayors are not defying or challenging Tsai’s policies, but few of them have publicly voiced their support for the U.S. pork. If public anger keeps rising after the lift of the ban, will these DPP political elites widen “social distancing” from Tsai?

All these mentioned above, together with referendums on ractopamine-laden pork and resumption of work on No.4 nuclear power plant, will significantly affect the 2022 nine-in-one elections, constrain the action of DPP political elites, and limit the room for Tsai’s administration in the next three years.

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