by Li Ping

There have been Chinese military aircraft frequenting Taiwan Strait and it seems the Taiwan Strait is on the brink of war. Although CCP officials were using the Straits Forum to reiterate its “favor-granting” Taiwan policy remains unchanged, but from state-run media to the Internet, all discussions have been built up to promote military unification; propaganda like “Taiwanese are ungrateful,” “public opinion has demonized the CCP,” “foreign power interfered,” “young people are losing their principle and mind” etc. has been used to provoke populist, the same old trick being used when Hong Kong national security law was being legislated. What noticeable is, KOLs have been telling people in Fujian that, the current situation in Taiwan Strait is doing more harm than good, as if trying to calm their anxiety of being literally caught in the crossfire due to Fujian sitting directly across the Strait from Taiwan.

The annual Straits Forum has always been an important platform for the CCP to make announcements relating to the “favor-granting” Taiwan policy and united front, including cross-strait direct flights and other measures to improve cross-strait exchange and cooperation in 2009, the first-ever Straits Forum; since Xi Jinping is in power, he has announced 31 measures to promote exchanges with Taiwan and the “66 Implementation Opinions” of Fujian province, etc. When Wang Yang, Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference made a speech at the forum on Sunday via video link, he detailed China’s “favor-granting” Taiwan policy and stressed that the related government departments and areas are studying to help the Taiwanese, especially the younger generation, to “pursue their dreams, build their dreams, fulfill their dreams.”

However, like the pro-Beijing politicians in Hong Kong keep telling Hongkongers to be grateful that China is supplying water, electricity and food to Hong Kong, or Carrie Lam’s government keep saying Hongkongers should be grateful that China legislates laws offering virus testing for Hong Kong; CCP media and internet websites are flooded with voices demanding Taiwanese to be grateful. Regardless of whether Hong Kong and Taiwan can survive and develop without the “favor-granting” policy from China, but the thought of wanting reward when offering help, then becomes hostile when not getting it, is one of the bases that builds China’s wolf-warrior mentality.

Guided by the state, public opinion started to doubt whether the “favor-granting” policy is useful at all, as it has not made Taiwanese identify themselves as Chinese; on the contrary, the strong sense of being local and independence the young Taiwanese possess became the main reason of Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) landslide victory at the Taiwan presidential election this year. Why neither do the Taiwan new generations who were born after Taiwan resumed trade and communication with China, nor the Hong Kong new generations who were born after China took back the city, would identify themselves as Chinese? CCP officials emphasized it was because local public opinions have demonized the CCP, exaggerated the difference of freedom and rule of law between China and Taiwan/Hong Kong, and that foreign powers have stuck their nose in to interfere the public opinion and robbing local interests.

Nowadays, with the far-reaching internet and information free flow in Hong Kong and Taiwan, it is more likely that the youngsters there are steering further away from the CCP because they understand it better, than because they are being misled and becoming ungrateful. While the CCP is criticizing Hong Kong and Taiwan for having benefited from China’s policy but still not following the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics, the western countries such as the U.S. and European countries are probably moaning about China not following the path of democracy after joining the World Trade Organization and getting rich.

The only self-knowledge the CCP has left with is probably knowing one country, two systems has gone bust in Hong Kong and would no longer have any market in Taiwan. Therefore, Wang Yang has not mentioned a word about it during his speech and only insisted on promoting the peaceful development of cross-Straits relations on the basis of the 1992 Consensus. However, in comparison to his speech last year, the proportion of contents criticizing Taiwan independence this year has largely increased, with some wolf warrior style sentences, “mainland China has always been proud and tough even when it was poor and today even more so. We will not tolerate our sovereignty, security and development interests being damaged!”

But relying on “my country is amazing!” propaganda is not enough to persuade people to support military action against Taiwan. Never mind those cities which Taiwan military missiles can reach, The people in Fujian, which is only across the water from Taiwan, are even more unwilling to see the war happening in Taiwan Strait. Therefore the state constantly spreads messages via KOLs to say Taiwan splitting from China hinders Fujian’s development; then suddenly brought up Hong Kong’s turmoil, saying it has shown the disadvantages of one country, two systems, which was the opposition power not being able to be removed in time and caused a huge political consequence. So Taiwan being in the current situation does both sides of the Strait much more harm than good.

CCP military aircraft constantly provokes Taiwan and so as the public opinion. It seems the CCP is determined to unify Taiwan by force and will act on it soon. But Taiwan is not Hong Kong. It is not a flat city and has an army with considerable combat power. Furthermore, if the international society cannot tolerate the CCP implementing national security law in Hong Kong, how can it tolerate the CCP invading Taiwan? Today everyone is besieging China. How about tomorrow? Does the CCP still want to shoot itself in the foot?

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