The annual meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, known as the Two Sessions, open on Thursday. Beijing is set to announce its 14th five-year plan as the Chinese Communist Party celebrates its centenary.

The rapidly ageing population, economic recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, poverty alleviation, and ongoing rivalry with the United States are high on the agenda. Beijing is also expected to address the electoral reform in Hong Kong and its policy towards Taiwan.

However, multiple experts have expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of the government’s recent policies.

As a decline in births prompted warnings for the economy, Chinese authorities are expected to delay the retirement age and unveil measures to encourage birth. Yet lifting birth restrictions may not trigger a baby boom as Beijing intends, given the high cost of raising children in mainland China, said Deng Yuwen, a Chinese political commentator now based in the U.S.

The CCP has capitalized on the demographic dividend of the country in the past 40 years, as the current success of its economy relies chiefly on the large and cheap labor force, said Deng.

But as the birth rate has plummeted in recent years, problems are expected to arise. Young families will bear a growing cost to support the elderlies, while the army may have trouble recruiting sufficient numbers of soldiers.

Meanwhile, though Chinese provincial and local governments are encouraging duty-free shopping in a bid to boost domestic consumption, Kevin Tsui, an associate professor of economics at Clemson University, warned that a duty-free economy may risk increasing the national debt.

Also in the spotlight is Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s report on the work of the government, where he is expected to unveil new controls on Hong Kong and changes to the electoral system. He will also address China’s policy towards Taiwan amid heightening tensions in cross-Strait relations.

The total failure of the “one country, two systems” framework in Hong Kong has undermined Beijing’s confidence in upholding “two systems,” said political scholar Wu Qiang. It is worth noting if Beijing will adopt a more hardline rhetoric on reunification with Taiwan, such as suggesting a vague timeline.

It will be good news for Taipei if Li only reiterates the principle of peaceful reunification and the 1992 consensus, as it shows Beijing only wants to maintain the status quo. The issue of Taiwan will take center stage in the next five to 10 years, however, if Chinese President Xi Jinping successfully stays for a third term, he added.

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