So far in his tenure, US President Donald Trump has made 11 arms sales to Taiwan. This year alone, he has approved six arms sales worth 550 billion dollars to strengthen the tangible military capabilities of Taiwan’s armed forces. The navy’s Tuo Chiang-class corvette has also been brought into service, and President Tsai Ing-wen has ordered that its mass production and introduction into service be accelerated to six ships within three years. As for Taiwan’s “Indigenous Defense Ship” initiative, efforts are being made to construct “red zone” military equipment, which our country cannot manufacture on its own, and it has been ordered that it should be launched and assembled within a limited time frame. All this has conveyed an atmosphere of escalating confrontations between both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the urgency of military readiness.

In recent years, the CCP has actively exercised its global socio-economic influence trying to constrain Taiwan’s participation in global affairs and “shrink” Taiwan into part of China. With tactics hard and soft, it is trying to silence opposition in the international community. Presently, the US has given proper regard to the deterioration of cross-strait relations and is actively enhancing Taiwan’s military capability and room for international involvement. The Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act passed by the US, in particular, requires its executive branch of government to actively speak up and make use of its influence to support Taiwan’s participation in international organizations.

US arms sales to Taiwan are now normalized to support Taiwan’s building of effective deterrent effects. This important change shows that the US now sees Taiwan as an independent partner rather than simply part of US-China relations. This will help strengthen Taiwan’s defense capabilities and will be conducive to the enhancement of Taiwan’s military power. However, it should be noted that, despite the fact that Taiwan is a long-term “de facto ally” of the US in East Asia, the US views its national interests as its priority and guiding principle. For Taiwan and the US to maintain their long-term and close interactions, Taiwan must maintain its alignment with the US’s national interests, otherwise, the strategic cooperation or partnership between the two nations will not be maintained.

It is easily noticeable from the changes in the bigger environment that there are some interlinked connections between US-China, US-Taiwan, and cross-strait relations. Thanks to Taiwan and the US’s similar democratic values, their frequent personnel and economic interactions, and their common interests, their strong ties will not change because of the transition of power. No matter whether it is the Democratic Party or the Republican Party that is in power, the US will maintain its friendly relationships and interactions with Taiwan.

As US-China relations have been affected by the pandemic and many other reasons, the likelihood of the Taiwan Strait evolving from a new Cold War to a partial escalation of tensions has risen. If both the US and China engage in the highly risky game of brinkmanship and keep ratcheting up military competition on the first island chain, so much so that neither side is willing to back off, there will be dangers of uncertainty. Nothing deters the CCP forces more than the US armed forces’ interference in Taiwan Strait conflicts, since the US forces have the ability to block the import of important strategic resources that the CCP relies upon for its survival, thus hurting the CCP’s ability to provide bread and butter for its people.

Furthermore, as far as the Taiwan Defense Act is concerned, the US has to maintain a formidable military presence in the Indian-Pacific in the future to maintain the stability of the Taiwan Strait so as to have the concrete ability to prevent China from making Taiwan a “fait accompli” through its opportunist military action. By making Taiwan a “fait accompli” I mean the CCP’s attempt to seize control of Taiwan before the US forces can take any effective counteraction, so much so the US believes that if it takes military counteraction, it will encounter immense difficulties or pay a dear price. The US will then balk at acting further.

Therefore, the US’s active normal military deployment, a show of military might and close-range military exercises in the Asia Pacific are aimed at forestalling the opportunism of the CCP. As for the Taiwan military forces, they should exert themselves, their goal being holding on to the first line of defense and withstanding the first strike.

The biggest change in the US’s arms sales to Taiwan to this date has been the change from the past package-based practice to a case-by-case approach. The change has streamlined the process and made our country’s purchase of weapons more rapid and instantaneous. The US also has, through congressional legislation and statements made by the executive branch, demonstrated its support for Taiwan. US warplanes and vessels have traveled through Taiwan’s airspace and waters frequently to flex their muscles. If the CCP achieves Taiwan’s reluctant unification with China, particularly if it does so by force, the US’s ability to maintain a free, open India-Pacific will be seriously harmed.

Taiwan and other nations in the India-Pacific – including the US – have inextricably entwined destinies. Obliged by the Taiwan Relations Act, the US will interfere in the CCP’s military aggressions against Taiwan to prevent it from creating a fait accompli.

Any battlefield is a harsh testing ground of strength. There is no room for luck. Being practical is the basics. With the arrival of new weapons, the mode of defense operations in Taiwan and Pescadores will have to undergo a radical change in terms of tactics, mindsets, guidelines and manuals, the employment of firepower and the nurture of talents. It will also be necessary to plan ahead. From formalism, emphasis on formality, all the bombastic talk of no action must be cast aside in order to maintain the first-rate military forces of the Taiwan forces to ensure the stability of the Taiwan Strait.

(Chang Yan-ting is an Honorary Chair Professor at National Tsing Hua University and a retired Lieutenant General.)

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