Before its fall in 1911, the Qing Dynasty attempted to introduce economic and technology reform, and eventually, a proposal to transform the absolute monarchy into a constitutional. Unfortunately, everything came too little too late. The Qing failed to introduce a peace reform and transition itself from the ancient regime to a modern state. The abrupt end of Qing was nevertheless a false start. Civil wars aborted all the attempts to establish sustainable political institutions. It was a period when powers, foreign influence, and propagandas determine the political outcomes.



Fortunately, Hong Kong was a sanctuary and a free port. During the turbulent times in the decades to follow, Hong Kong remained as a buffer zone and a connection between China and the world. Hong Kong not only supplied China with resources and capital, but also accommodated generations of migrants and provided them with a place to call home.



In the first half of the 20th century, two mainstreams of influence, namely Japan and Russia, dominated China's ideological landscape. After the Russo-Japanese War of 1904, many more Chinese political and thought leaders looked to Japan as the role model of modernization. After the First World War, the Chinese Communist Party(CCP) emerged under the Comintern.



Although both the ruling the Kuomintang(KMT) and CCP had ties with the Soviets, the first act of the Civil War between the two blocs broke out in 1927, and sustained until it was interrupted by the Japanese invasion in 1937. Meanwhile, the Japanese ideological influence waned in the 1930s, and the end of the Second World War also ended all the Japanese leverage over China.



The conflict between the KMT and CCP continued. Except for the Soviets, the rest of the world did not intervene. On October 1, 1949, Mao Ze-dong proclaimed the establishment of the People's Republic of China(PRC).



In the second half of the 20th century, China experienced another false start in its quest for modernization. The Soviet-style planned economy was a disaster. The Cultural Revolution devastated Chinese heritage, moral foundation, institutions, and relationship with the rest of the world. China isolated itself and was mostly absent from major global events in the 1960s and 1970s.



It was not until Nixon's visit in 1972, China once again became relevant. When Deng Xiao-ping finally resumed his control of the CCP in 1977, China was arguably worse than it was at the turn of the 20th century. China did not have too many options if it wanted to remain viable.



By the time China opening up in 1978, Hong Kong was already an economic powerhouse. The city was one of the world's most efficient light manufacturing centers, with the world's busiest port and a booming stock market. Its development was at least a decade ahead of even the closest competitor, i.e., Singapore. It was the world's freest economy, while Communist China was struggling to remain relevant.



China would have had a hard time catching up with establishing its market institution if Hong Kong had not played a part. The city's expertise in manufacturing and international trade helped China to build up its capacity gradually. Its pop culture was also an eye-opener to many of the mainlanders. The world hoped China would adopt Hong Kong's model,modernize itself to be a free and prosperous nation.



Mikhail Gorbachev became the Soviet Union's General Secretary in 1986. When he took over the position, the Soviet Union was under enormous economic pressure; hence he introduced Perestroika in 1987.



Meanwhile, China also hit its first developmental bottleneck. The market, the private sector, outgrowed the capacity for the public sector. Both the intelligentsia in the Soviet Union and Communist China called for institutional reforms.



Hardliners in the CCP were acutely aware of the regime's existential crisis since the 1986 student movement. The Party replaced its reform-minded Secretary General Hu Yao-bang in 1987, yet the authoritarian regime did nothing substantial to address the underlying problems. In April 1989, Hu passed away. Once again, students took to the street. The scope and scale of the 1989 student movement were much bigger than the one in 1986. The CCP became paranoid about the situation and mobilized the army to quash the protest.



Immediately after the Tiananmen massacre, Communist China made it clear the nation and the CCP were inseparable, and there would never be any institutional reform. From the end of the Qing Dynasty to Communist China, the Chinese ruling ideology has remained the same. During good times, China would take advantage of the free market and technology to reinforce its control. Nevertheless, when there was a crisis, the regime, for survive, would not mind giving up economic progress, closing down the country, even isolating itself.



In the first three-quarters of the 20th century, China failed to modernize itself by modelling after the case of Japan and the Soviet Union. Ironically, only in the last decade of the century, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, did it witness the end of its ideological leadership. China had survived the existential crisis and emerged as a modern nationalistic collectivist state since.



The world's political tectonic continued to shift in the 1990s. Asian economic powers ascended, declined, and rose again. Since 1997, Hong Kong has witnessed the handover, the Asian Financial Crisis, as well as the shift of the gravity of economic center towards China. The city has provided the avenue for capitalizing and reforming the state-owned sector, helping China survive another developmental bottleneck.



Around 2004, Communist China started to propagate the Beijing Consensus as an alternative to the liberal democratic capitalism. In the past 15 years, China has been assertive increasingly, sometimes belligerent. Unfortunately, too few people have heeded the early warning about the emergence of a nationalistic China.



China might have convinced the world that everything would be fine as long as what happens in China stays in China. Hong Kong's resistance movement in 2019 came at the right time as the wake-up call for the world. Subsequently, the world saw for itself during the Wuhan Virus outbreak, how dangerous the world can become if China remains opaque and unaccountable for its ill deeds.



If Hong Kong falls, China is doomed. The National Security Law will no doubt end Hong Kong as we know it. The sanction and revocation of the special status will also deal another blow to Hong Kong. But we should also bear in mind that Hong Kong is the antithesis of China and China's saving grace.



Without Hong Kong, it might have taken China many more years to reach its current development stage. China has succeeded in modernizing itself without institutional reform because "One Country Two Systems" gave China the backdoor to the capitalist system.



Communist China may eventually and reluctantly leave Hong Kong alone, for the time being. But even if that is the case, it will likely be a short-lived one.



China cannot remain an authoritarian regime and sustain the economy progression to become an even more complex and sophisticated one. In 2006, just weeks before passing away, the late Milton Friedman wrote, "The ultimate fate of China depends, I believe, on whether it continues to move in Hong Kong's direction faster than Hong Kong moves in China's."



Hong Kong should be the role model for China, not the other way round. If Hong Kong never existed, China would be very different. If Hong Kong ceases to exist, China cannot remain the same.

(Simon Lee is a Hong Kong-based columnist for Apple Daily)

---------------------------------
Apple Daily’s all-new English Edition is now available on the mobile app
To know more: https://bit.ly/2yMMfQE
Apple Daily mobile app latest version DOWNLOAD NOW