The final days of President Donald Trump at the White House is in play. The protest turned excessive violence that took place in Capitol Hill resulted in fatalities. What has been caught on camera worldwide cannot be doctored, and it is a sad reality. That said, I still believe the American democracy will still be strong and intact, even though it takes time to heal.

For an outsider like me, I was even more appalled by the technology titans’ reactions and decisions to ban Trump’s usage of social media on their respective platforms – perhaps permanently. That makes you wonder: this is a restriction of speech freedom, and isn’t it the perfect timing for an “axis of evil” to take advantage of the situation to take military action against America, when the commander-in-chief of the most powerful nation is handcuffed by its own people? Things are usually more complicated than what we see when it comes to politics, but it seems like Trump is fighting a lot of others within the US now, and the attacks are from all directions.

But on this side of the world in Hong Kong, which is 13 hours ahead of Washington DC, people living in the city, perhaps, are still grateful for and respectful of what the Trump administration has done over the past four years. And more to that in my next opinion piece when the Biden administration comes into play next week. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong authorities are trying hard, at least at the superficial level, to make sure that businesses are perceived to run as normal, with the enactment of the National Security Law (NSL) six months ago. In actuality, there have been unprecedented crackdowns on human rights by the government, and mass arrests of Hong Kong citizens in an arbitrary manner are under way, which makes businessmen worry.

For so many years, in mid-Januarys, the Asian Financial Forum (AFF) organized by the Hong Kong government has attracted business leaders from the Asian region and across the globe to do business and governmental networking in the event. It is indeed a good platform for leaders in governments, businesses and finance to get together to set the stage for the year ahead. This annual event has been around for many years. It usually lasts for two days, and face to face meetings are important for businesses and diplomacy. And in this year, it goes 100% online, and takes place between Jan 18 and 19, ending on the day before the US presidential inauguration.

The theme for Hong Kong forum this year is “Reshaping World Economic Landscape.” Some Hong Kong government officials would go an extra mile, so to speak, to attend the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland that usually takes place in the week or fortnight after the AFF event. But the WEF is rescheduled for April this year, while Hong Kong insists to have the AFF event online. I doubt it will attract a sizeable audience. But who knows, and who cares now, when the whole world is focusing on whether the US will have a smooth transition of power next week? While Hong Kong is in big crisis, the technocrats who run the city are just following directives given by Beijing - Hong Kong has lost its autonomy, and nothing seems to stop this harsh reality from worsening.

That brings to the point I want to make: the whole world is indeed waiting for the upcoming Biden administration to act, to reset the world stage, so the players can make the next strategic move. And of course, Hong Kong is caught in the conflicts between the US and China: nothing is moving much here, other than the fact that Hong Kongers are fleeing the city by all means.

I have recently asked a sizeable US asset manager based in Hong Kong whether his regional headquarters is moving out of the city, given the political uncertainty. With the upcoming Biden administration, some firms have adapted the wait-and-see mentality. “Six months will do it”. He said to me. “But it is more than just whether the upcoming Biden administration will lift sanctions against China, or the other way round. It is the confidence and trust factor. Who wants to run an asset management business in Hong Kong when everything is highly politicized, and you can get arrested for anything under the sun?” I still believe businesses will stay, and they obviously need a more clearly defined contingency plan that deals with unforeseeable political risks than ever. Hong Kong and Beijing have to prove yet to the world that “quality leadership” still exists in the city, albeit the failed leadership of the Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor perceived by so many.

For all intents and purposes, a sizeable number of Hong Kongers do believe the Trump administration was a strong defender of global peace; Hong Kong has been in the limelight internationally over the last 18 months, and we have been playing a role in the conflicts between the US and China. What I mean by this is that while the two superpowers have imposed sanctions and tariffs on each other, Hong Kong people are fighting for their survival: suddenly, the “one country, two systems” model is undermined, and what is our position on the world stage in the year of 2021? The DNA of Hong Kong is changed, and the NSL seems to be the only law that matters now - the worst is yet to come.

The NSL that Beijing imposed on Hong Kong over the last six months has proven that it is just another excuse to suppress the freedom-loving people of Hong Kong. What used to make Hong Kong unique was that even though the city was part of China after the 1997 Handover, it remained free and distinct from the communist China in all aspects - until recently.

But Hong Kong is not free anymore. The best talents of Hong Kong are not the technocrats nor the pro-Beijing loyalists in their 40s to the 70s, the power-hungry type who never want to step down, but the young people, who are sadly fleeing now for political suppression - there is no more relatively fair platform for most people to play. Beijing has been using the NSL abrasively to curb human rights and suppress freedoms in Hong Kong.

On the world stage, everything ultimately intertwines. While the US political infighting will come to an end, I believe the whole world is indeed waiting for a re-start, with the US taking the lead. Every country has their own vital interests, and at times will treat others as strategic partners or competitors. I believe Hong Kong is still an important player in the whole scheme of things, and that it will be a fatal mistake, if the free world doesn’t play a role in monitoring and criticizing what is going on in this city – a political genocide is in the making, and the government is covering up the violations by hook or crook.

I believe the US democracy will live up to the test, and things will be back to normalcy, and that the country will intervene in the injustice to maintain international order. A lot of people still believe that America is a land of freedoms for people inclusive of activists or members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) trying to flee China for political infighting or other reasons and escape for better lives and freedoms in America. And for Hong Kong, with the NSL over the past six months, we have experienced dictatorship. No one is sure when the darkness will end. We, as Hong Kongers, are still anxiously waiting.

(Edward Chin (錢志健) runs a family office. Chin was formerly Country Head of a UK publicly listed hedge fund, the largest of its kind measured by asset under management. Outside the hedge funds space, Chin is Convenor of 2047 Hong Kong Monitor and a Senior Advisor of Reporters Without Borders (RSF, HK & Macau). Chin studied speech communication at the University of Minnesota, and received his MBA from the University of Toronto. Twitter: edwardckchin Youtube: Ed Chin Channel Facebook.com/edckchin Email: [email protected])

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