Hong Kong in a severe storm now|Edward Chin
While some pro-Beijing loyalists from Hong Kong talk so casually in public about the fact that the U.S. sanctions against Hong Kong and Chinese government officials who undermine Hong Kong’s autonomy would have little effect on their personal lives, some of them have been reacting fast to dispose of their personal assets in the United States, in case the sanctions result in the freezing of their liquid (banks accounts) and non-liquid (real estate) assets. Former Secretary for Security of Hong Kong Regina Ip (1950-), currently a Legislative and Executive Council member of the city, is one of the few pro-Beijing loyalists who would do anything humanly possible to avoid such sanctions, as she suspects she might “get lucky” not too far from now.
Ip joined the Hong Kong Government in the 1970s as an Administrative Officer, progressing through her ranks in the system, also successfully turning herself into a pro-Beijing leader of sorts after the 1997 handover. She seems to have won the trust from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) thus far. Back at the end of May of this year, before the National Security Law (NSL) was enacted, Ip said publicly that she was not afraid of any sanction imposed by the U.S.. But as the old adage goes, one week is already too long in politics, she is now “hedging her chips” on the table.
The U.S. did put up a sanction list on 11 Hong Kong and Chinese government officials that have undermined Hong Kong’s autonomy. Sanctioned or soon to be sanctioned by the U.S. could be perceived as loyalty to Beijing. So here comes Ip. In the eye of the CCP, Regina Ip, I believe, is a contender and a back-up consideration for Hong Kong’s top job as Chief Executive, in case something happens, a “designated survivor”. Given her long track record in the government and now being a pro-Beijing loyalist who showed keen interest to run for office in Hong Kong as early as 2012 and 2017, she might be back for the 2022 race. Ip was the figure head advocating the passage of Hong Kong’s national security legislation, known as Article 23 of the Basic Law, back in 2003. Luckily, the legislation was withdrawn in the same year after much resistance from the Hong Kong people.
Ip’s confrontational style resulted in the largest protest ever after the 1997 handover, with an estimated half million people turnout to say no to Article 23. In the first few years after the handover, the Hong Kong government would still listen to the public opinion from Hong Kong people, and Beijing would still have hesitation in overruling their voices. I was one of the half million who took to the streets on July 1, 2003.
It is worthwhile to make a comparison between what happened in 2003 and the challenges we face now in 2020. A few months before the half million march on July 1, 2003, SARS broke out in Hong Kong, and the economy suffered badly. As a matter of record, Regina Ip did resign from her post on June 25 that year before the public demonstration on July 1. She subsequently went to Stanford University to pursue her master’s degree in East Asian Studies. That was six years after the handover, and government officials still believed in holding accountability to the people.
We are around three months away from the end of 2020. No Chief Executive of Hong Kong will be democratically elected, and universal suffrage will not take place. That said, the 2022 HKSAR Chief Executive race will get heated up soon, likely at the end of 2021, which is not too far away. The new Chief Executive of HKSAR will be sworn in on July 1, 2022, if all things go smoothly. Will there be new players contesting for the top job of Hong Kong, after seeing the current Chief Executive of HKSAR Carrie Lam being regarded as the most hated person in the city?
As we all know, the HKSAR Chief Executive race is just a show, and Beijing makes the ultimate decision without fail. Now also, the CCP wants Hong Kong companies doing businesses in China across all sectors to have absolute “loyalty”, and follow the “Party Line”. This “pledge of allegiance” to the party would also deeply integrate and be channeled down into Hong Kong society. As Beijing’s directive is to push through the Greater Bay Area concept, Hong Kong will be perceived as only one of the Chinese cities.
Talking of following the “Party Line”, one loyalist worth mentioning is the current Secretary for Security John Lee (1957-), who has been interviewed by pro-Beijing mouthpiece Tai Kung Pao recently. He said there is a sense of urgency to get rid of the “bad apples” in the education sector of Hong Kong, and this “exercise” would take one to two years to get the mission accomplished. Lee is another strong candidate who keeps his current post without getting reshuffled and might be able to enter a contest for higher office. On record, John Lee is one of the eleven officials currently being sanctioned by the U.S. government for undermining Hong Kong’s autonomy.
One definitely has to sell his or her soul to remain in key posts in the HKSAR government. A totalitarian state needs obedient puppet leaders to execute orders. Former Chief Executive of the HKSAR Donald Tsang might have been the “least unpopular” leader since the handover. Some Hong Kong people believe Tsang had defended HK’s core values as much as he could, during his time as the Chief Executive of Hong Kong. Back then, HK citizen and veteran journalist Ching Cheong was sentenced to five years in prison in China for espionage charges. Tsang said in public that the HK Government would render every practicable assistance in accordance with Ching Cheong family’s wishes and appeals. Ching Cheong’s jail time in China was cut in half, to which most people believed that Donald Tsang was instrumental. Those were the better days of Hong Kong after the handover.
Would current Chief Executive of Hong Kong Carrie Lam (1957-) be able to defend our rights, and bring hope to Hong Kong, albeit all social movements of this city are being suppressed now in the name of COVID-19? Lam once claimed that she is like the mother of Hong Kong people, to which a lot of people reacted strongly and negatively. If Lam really means she is “like the mother of Hong Kong people”, why is she not doing anything to assist the 12 young people from Hong Kong who got detained by the Chinese police in Shenzhen Yantian Detention Center? For alleged misconduct that they illegally crossed the border to Chinese waters by speed boat from Hong Kong, with the intention of fleeing to Taiwan? In a best case scenario, the fate of the 12 detainees could be like that of the Causeway Bay booksellers, and they might be brought over for public confession on TV. I call it a best case scenario, because we will know that the 12 are still alive, if they show up on TV.
Like it or not, Regina Ip, John Lee and Carrie Lam are experienced bureaucrats. They could individually or collectively make an impact and negotiate for extraditing the twelve people back to Hong Kong. All three bureaucrats, however, turned a deaf ear to the need, and claimed that the Chinese authorities would have jurisdictions over such a matter. With Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying making a bold claim that the 12 Hong Kong citizens are separatists, the chances for them to be extradited back to Hong Kong for trial does not look promising. New rules are in play now, so the Hong Kong government is not willing to protect its own people. What comes next for Hong Kong is the further erosion of its freedom, loss of free speech and even persecution. Hong Kong is in a severe storm now, we have to increase our chance of survival.
(Edward Chin runs a family office. Chin was formerly Country Head of a UK publicly listed hedge fund, the largest of its kind measured by asset under management. Outside the hedge funds space, Chin is Convenor of 2047 Hong Kong Monitor and a Senior Advisor of Reporters Without Borders (RSF, HK & Macau). Chin studied speech communication at the University of Minnesota, and received his MBA from the University of Toronto. Twitter: edwardckchin Youtube: Ed Chin
Facebook.com/edckchin Email:
[email protected])
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