In the past several weeks, waters around China, from the north to the south, has become the focus of international media and discussions. Under the hostility between the U.S. and China with the trade war and full decoupling, the current Indo-Pacific situation is becoming riskier. In my humble opinion, the recent development of the Indo-Pacific especially maritime safety can be analyzed from the “six Mores” perspective.

First of all, China is showing a “more assertive” stance in the Indo-Pacific area, especially in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, to declare that the South China Sea and neighboring waters are a “controllable sphere of influence” of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). It also aimed to warn the U.S. not to upset Beijing’s One China principle. The international society (including the U.S. pre-Trump era) was expecting China to be tamable and regulated, but as China actively strengthens One Belt One Road initiative global layout in recent years, multiple doubts within the international society quickly expand as China uses sharp power to infiltrate specific countries and erode their foundation of a democratic society. The increasingly aggressive and brutal Beijing has also caused concern from the neighboring countries and international major power, who are taking direct actions in response.

Among those actions, the U.S. has become “more engaging” in the Indo-Pacific area because of China’s expansionism. This is obviously closely linked to Washington’s decoupling China and deepening the Indo-Pacific strategy. Whether it is its recent military projection towards the South China Sea or proactively strengthening its partner relationship with Taiwan (such as the U.S. Under Secretary Krach’s Taiwan visit, “Fortress Taiwan” plan from the U.S. Ministry of National Defense and the arrangements of arms sales, etc.), it reflects Washington’s Indo-Pacific area interests have already included democratic Taiwan. Apart from the U.S., NATO organizations in Europe and major powers such as Germany, France and the UK are also paying more attention to the South China Sea development, and at the same time “more articulating.”

In NATO’s perspective, its interest in the Indo-Pacific area focuses on security governance structure, which prevents conflicts in the region from spreading and affecting NATO members. It also hopes to strengthen the area’s maritime safety coordination mechanism and facilitate a network safety architecture, because it is extremely difficult to build a collective security mechanism in the Indo-Pacific region like the one in NATO. Nevertheless, NATO still strengthens its regional partner relationship with the region and signed Individual Partnership and Cooperation Programme (IPCP) with Australia in August this year, to enhance the foundation of their shared value on democracy, peace, human rights and international security rule of law, at the same time further reinforce their collaboration on military exercises.

With regards to other member countries, the South China Sea strategy group of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the French National Assembly has in recent time published a report focusing on China’s campaign of occupation in the region, apart from the original consideration on resources, it would also involve a hostile relationship with the U.S. In fact, France has already arranged nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and its carrier strike group back in 2019 to dock in Singapore which shows France’s commitment to Indo-Pacific freedom of navigation. In September this year, the French Senate has officially invited Francois Wu, my country’s representative to France, for the first time to attend an investigative committee hearing, during which Wu shared Taiwan’s anti-pandemic experience and has received great feedback.

Apart from France, according to the UK newspaper The Times, Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth is expected to lead a carrier strike group and set sail to visit the Far East in January 2021, which would be her first voyage. English think tank Henry Jackson Society has also published a policy research report in 2020, in which it has pointed out the UK should strongly support the setting up of the Indo-Pacific treaty organization, committed to defending the democratic norms of the region, and ensure the region will not be eroded by authoritarian subversion. This report has also included propositions and suggestions from the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation, which has highlighted the developing role and capability of Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy on the overall Indo-Pacific region situation.

In comparison to the UK and France, although there has been a rumor that Germany would also send navy ships to South China Sea waters, it is still unclear. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Minister of Defense in Germany, stressed that Germany’s Indo-Pacific partner is being suppressed continuously by China’s expansionism. Therefore she hopes to gather a clear consensus on subjects such as functional international law, completeness of territory, and freedom of navigation. This is the moment for Germany to clearly express its willingness to support its Indo-Pacific allies.

Comparing to the distanced power from Europe and the U.S., other countries within the region such as Australia, which is located in the south of the South China Sea, is also “more responsive” towards the U.S.'s attitude and actions of its involvement on the South China Sea. For example, when the U.S. announced the CCP’s claim of sovereignty over the South China Sea is “unlawful,” the Australian Mission to the United Nations also issued a statement on Jul. 24, 2020 refusing to accept China’s sovereign claim on the South China Sea, saying its declaration does not adhere to United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

India, another great power in the Indo-Pacific area, has been “more concrete” in its response since 2019. Prime Minister Modi proposed Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative (IPOI) at the East Asia Summit (EAS) in 2019, which continues the India-supported strategic autonomy and tolerance, as Modi specifically emphasized during a speech at Shangri-La Dialogue. He also set out the further implementation of “seven pillars” such as enhancing maritime security. The regional view based on this structure reflects the different entry points between India, a major power in the Indo-Pacific region, and the U.S., whose strong focus is on economy and security; India uses the ocean as a starting point and focuses on Indo-Pacific affairs, which opens up India’s position which is different from strong China in the region, and more possibilities of cooperation that benefit all parties beyond the zero-sum conflict between territory and sovereignty.

Lastly, facing this ever-changing situation, Taiwan needs to be “more resilient.” My country has become a regional hot spot under the constant change of East Asia situation due to U.S.-China hostility. Facing the aggressive threat from China hegemony, apart from insisting on maintaining a non-provocative response, we must also proactively seek international support, deepening our partner relationship with major countries by establishing mutual interests. President Tsai Ing-wen spoke in the “ASPI Webinar: Indo-Pacific Leaders Dialogue” of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and emphasized that Taiwan and Australia are important members of the Indo-Pacific region. Safeguarding the region’s “peace” and “prosperity” is their mutual responsibility and of the best interests for both parties.

Indo-Pacific post-pandemic will face more uncertainties caused by the heating up of U.S.-China conflicts. Apart from the tense military situation, the restructuring of each country’s economic and trade industry chain, the need of safe and stable food supply, and subjects regarding regional development such as the safety of the domestic society and public health would need a new way of governance; and all types of new partner relationships that are suitable for the new situation would become more important.

With the existing New Southbound Policy partner relationship and the accumulated achievement, Taiwan should continue to speak up and joint force with other countries in the region to face various challenges caused by the post-pandemic U.S.-China fight. The government and civil society should also focus on how to deepen a progressive partner relationship of regional stability and prosperity, and dock multiple policy agendas to deepen the development of resilience, in the hope to effectively respond to the other aforementioned five “Mores.”

(Yang Hao, Professor at Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies, National Chengchi University, Taiwan and Executive Director of Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation.)

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