Worldwide effort needed to stop CCP from imposing security legislation onto HK (Simon Lee)
Leaders of Communist China believe in a monolithic world where there can only be one supreme power on the top of the hierarchy. The ideological perspective on global order is consistent with Marxists' simplistic formulation of human relations - one must either belong to the proletariat or take the side as the oppressors.
Although colonialism has long been a distant memory, Chinese nationalists cannot resist pitching themselves the emancipators, and the west, especially the Americans, as the imperialists top-dogs to be challenged, someday, somehow.
Chinese leaders have the deep-seated assumption a clash between the two legendary nations is inevitable. The fatal conflicts imply the end is near, and China will rise once again to be the center of the universe.
China has been building its global influence through its expansionary economic program and developmental aids since the 2000s. Authoritarian regimes in developing nations welcomed these programs, as the politicians enriched themselves.
"I do not see a chance our politicians would not stand up against China. Our government is not concerned about the debt-trap, either. Do you know how much they make because of the belt-and-road projects?" A friend of mine from Nigeria lamented.
"But how does the bilateral economic relationship between Nigeria and China work out for the people?" I asked.
"We are importing much more from China, and it is our biggest trading partner. But with the price of crude oil reaching its historical low, I fear the trade imbalance will eventually become a cause of concern. Many people in my country consider their job taken away by Chinese workers, while Chinese governments are coaxing our country into wasteful infrastructure projects we cannot afford," my friend continued.
China has recently offered two billion dollars in aids and debt relief to seventy-seven countries. Still, the measures have come too little too late to alter the perception and the fundamental imbalance of economic interests and powers between China and other nations. Nigeria is just a case in point.
The outbreak of Wuhan Pneumonia incidentally escalated the tension between China and various nations, including the African ones. But it is the belief that Communist China is the economic imperialist in the 21st century that triggers the hostile sentiments amongst the belt-and-road nations.
Internationally, China is not as powerful as it seems. Very few nations will remain on China's side if there is conflict on a global scale.
Domestically, China's economic institutions are also more vulnerable than it appears to be. China's Premier Li Keqiang has recently revealed that more than 600 million Chinese make less than RMB 1000 a month. Also, according to the estimate by BNP Paribas, the global economic downturn as a result of the Wuhan Pneumonia outbreak will end up with as many as 132 million Chinese workers, or 30% of the workforce, displaced.
Authoritarian regimes often turn aggressive and militant when they are under an existential crisis. It is perhaps the reason behind China's desperate acts to impose the security legislation and measures onto Hong Kong.
The international community has been warier of China's excessive assertiveness since the brutal crackdown against the peaceful protest against the Extradition legislation in 2019. But it was the Wuhan Pneumonia outbreak that finally awakened the international community to the importance and urgency of containing China's expansion of influence.
Although the effectiveness of economic sanctions remains a disputed academic subject, economic sanctions are a popular form for containment, especially in the post-Cold War era. There are currently twenty country-based US sanctions programs, including the denial of access to the US financial system, freezing assets under US jurisdiction, or the prohibition of certain exports. Each year, the Department of the Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control designates thousands of individuals and entities under different sanction programs. Trump Administration's call to cut ties with the World Health Organization is also a derivative form of sanction that put China in the spotlight.
Generally speaking, there are three fundamental conditions for economic sanctions to function effectively. Firstly, economic sanctions have a higher chance of achieving their goals if major global players join forces. Multinational sanctions make it more difficult for the nations targeted to find ways to get around.
Secondly, sanctions must bring about immediate and significant impacts. If the target regimes have the time to adapt themselves, autocratic governments may leverage the circumstances for arousing xenophobic sentiments.
Thirdly, sanctions targeting the individuals of the ruling class have a much higher chance of success. No dictator can effectively exercise powers and controls over their nations without the support of a closed group of political allies. Sanctioning the dictators and their political allies creates the internal friction and fractions that may bring down even the most iron-clad oligarchies.
The US and its allies may also expose under-the-table-deals China made with different authoritarian regimes, especially under the belt-and-road initiative. Corporations and financial institutions involved in these dealings could be put under scrutiny for abetting acts of corruption. From a realist perspective, China has very few countering options.
If there is a concerted effort to put pressure on China through economic sanctions, I will not be surprised if Communist leaders, for the time being, retracts on its decision regarding the security law or reverses its assertiveness. However, changes will only be permanent when there are transparency, accountability, and checks and balances. After the Tiananmen Massacre thirty-one years ago, instead of imposing economic sanctions on China, the world waited and hoped that economic prosperity would eventually foster a peaceful evolution. History shows that Communist China may appear to be more amicable at times; its true dictatorial nature stays the same.
(Simon Lee is a Hong Kong-based columnist for Apple Daily)
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