Recently, US military aircrafts have been frequently flying into the airspace around the vicinity of Taiwan, while Chinese military aircrafts have been appearing in the seas on Taiwan’s ​​southwest. This situation is rather unusual. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) may be conducting air activities that correspond to the surrounding military dynamics at that moment: Chinese military aircrafts that fly to the seas may be responding to situations such as conducting electronic reconnaissance or monitoring US military aircraft operations, and may not necessarily aim at Taiwan. For example, on June 9, when a number of Su-30 fighters briefly entered Taiwan’s southwestern airspace, a C-40 transport aircraft, modified from a Boeing 737 passenger plane, flew south through the western route of Taiwan's main island.

Releasing political signals to effect a propaganda attack

Similarly, on June 12, an 8 transport aircraft entered Taiwan’s southwestern airspace. On the same day, the Chinese Academy of Sciences conducted a test launch of the Tiangong 3 missile in Taitung, while a US Navy P-8 patrol aircraft and an Air Force KC-135 were also patrolling the Bashi Strait. On June 16, a J-10 briefly entered Taiwan's southwestern airspace. It so happened that a US Navy P-8 and an Air Force KC-135 were also operating in the southern Taiwan airspace. On June 17, a J-10 and an electric reconnaissance aircraft entered Taiwan’s southwestern airspace again, while a US military KC-135 tanker, which seemed to be performing refueling missions for unknown aircrafts, was active in the surrounding area.

The "Southwest Airspace" is quite a broad area. In the past, it was relatively rare for Chinese military aircrafts to fly close to the airspace at the southern end of the center line of the Taiwan Strait, and much information can be interpreted from this move. First of all, in addition to the recent US operations to strengthen the right to free navigation at sea, it seems that the US is also increasing its air activities in the Western Pacific, including the reconnaissance and surveillance of the PLA’s deployment and military exercises, and the PLA’s long-range patrol of bombers. For this reason, China’s navy and air force fighters responded by going to the seas to stop the United States from scouting the PLA. In the past, Chinese military aircrafts time and again "harassed" US Navy's anti-submarine patrol aircrafts in the South China Sea. As US military aircrafts escalate activities in the Western Pacific, Chinese military aircrafts are expected to respond more frequently in the East China Sea and Taiwan’s Southwestern seas.

Second, the US Air Force dispatched B-1B bombers to scout the Western Pacific Ocean continuously, showing the US’s new strategy of "sea control by air", proving its capability in "Dynamic Force Employment", and stationing them in Guam to replace the B-52 when the B-52 ended its "Continuous Bomber Presence" mission in April 2020. This shows the US’s commitment to the Asia-Pacific region, to maintain regional stability and deter rivals, and to warn China that the US military is deployed as usual.

The top mission of the PLA’s Eastern Theatre Command is to ensure that China’s air superiority in its surrounding waters will not be eroded by the United States. However, the PLA Air Force lacks long-range refueling capability; its long-range air superiority capability is limited; and the J-20 fighter has not yet developed into an effective combat power. It still needs to depend on the Su-30, the imitation J-16, or the Su-35 that appeared in the past, and the shorter range J-10. Although China dispatched fighter planes to frequently fly over the seas, its ability to maintain air dominance over the seas still poses a challenge.

Third, military exercises have political and military significance. China uses military exercises to release political signals that it is capable of controlling its surrounding airspace and does not allow the United States to challenge it. At the same time, it gives a warning on Taiwan’s political trends and stops the United States and Taiwan from forming closer ties or developing into substantive military cooperation or official relations. Interpretations of the political significance of military exercises are often exaggerated, amplifying its propaganda effect whether aimed locally or abroad, thereby boosting its marginal benefits of a "propaganda attack".

Reducing Taiwan’s sea and air defense warning areas

Fourth, China’s aerial operations are also testing the response capabilities and combat situation of Taiwan’s army. The center line of the Taiwan Strait is just a virtual boundary, and the location of the southern end of the line may be subject to different interpretations from the Chinese Communist Party(CCP) and Taiwan. Yet psychologically, the lines of the Taiwan Strait give an intangible meaning of how well Taiwan can resist China’s military pressure, and the CCP is well aware of this. In the past, what CCP military aircrafts did at most was to circumnavigate around the island or came out to the sea and went back. However, conducting military exercise in the area or even crossing the center line may gradually be more frequent, resulting in a fait accompli, gradually shrinking Taiwan’s sea and air defense warning areas, making Taiwan’s routine combat trainings more complicated, and will also become a severe challenge to Taiwan’s defense.

If the CCP wants to effectively threaten the deployment of US naval vessels in the eastern waters of Taiwan, it needs to have long-range intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, target acquisition, satellite communication, and data link transmission for mid-course guidance and long-distance guidance of shore-based anti-ship ballistic missiles in order to complete its so-called "kill chain" of its aircraft carriers.

After implementing military reforms, China continued to strengthen its "systematic operations" (i.e., joint operations) capabilities, and conducted trainings such as amphibious landings, island captures, long-range voyages of aircraft carriers, and long-range air force trainings to improve the PLA’s long-range joint operations capabilities at sea. As its naval aviation capabilities are still inadequate and its carrier-based aviation force is still very weak, it needs to depend on its Air Force to help maintain air superiority. Therefore, relying on its Air Force to seize air control and protect the safety of its surface ships have become an extremely important and critical part of its expeditionary operations.

Different types of Chinese military aircraft have been flying to the far seas in batches. It is possible that China is conducting systematic combat training to develop naval-aviation synergy. In future, combined with China’s new battle vehicles, China will form new armies with strengthened expeditionary combat capabilities and overall air and sea combat capabilities – and this merits our attention.

（Shu Xiao-huang, Assistant Researcher, Institute for National Defense and Security Research）

---------------------------------
Apple Daily’s all-new English Edition is now available on the mobile app
To know more: https://bit.ly/2yMMfQE
Apple Daily mobile app latest version DOWNLOAD NOW