Beware of three major perils from CCP on its 100th anniversary (Tzou Wenfeng)
Next year, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will celebrate the 100th anniversary of its foundation. 71 years has passed since it founded the red empire of the People’s Republic of China. Xi Jinping once pledged to build a "comprehensively well-off society" and a so-called "modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advance and harmonious" by the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China to realize the “Chinese dream of the great revival of the Chinese nation”, yet the CCP has admitted that it is currently confronted with unprecedented perils and challenges. In light of this, Xi's dream seems pretty far-fetched.
Political struggle surfaces when fighting poverty
Academics have summarized ten major prognostic indicators for an imminent fall of a dynasty in Chinese history. These include: politically, corruption of government officials, institutional rigidity, apotheosis of a ruler for consolidating his rule; economically, extortion of heavy taxes, development stagnation, very difficult life for the people; socially, antagonism between the government and the people, social chaos, forced control over the people, and loss of upward mobility. All are palpable in the current CCP regime. Adding Beijing’s diplomatic predicament into the equation, describing China’s current situation as having “domestic troubles and external worries” is simply a euphemism, if not an understatement. Honestly, the CCP is reaping what it has sowed by being authoritarian domestically and aggressive diplomatically.
First of all, on June 11, another coronavirus outbreak struck Beijing again, which was forced to raise the “public health emergency response level” to level 2 and putting the city in a “semi-lockdown” status. Although a preliminary judgment suggested that Beijing should be able to avoid another large-scale outbreak, its origin is difficult to trace and the time for the viral dispersal is hard to determine. In view of this, despite the fact that the CCP stressed the importance of “standard” prevention and control measures to stop viral importation and curb domestic rebound, “standard” outbursts across the country are expected to ensue. This is the bitter fruit of CCP officials’ usual practice of whitewashing and covering up the truth, which will make an unpredictable impact on mainland China’s economic recovery and social stability. In the past, the mainland gave up ecological conservation in exchange for economic development. And now in the midst of a devastated living environment has come the uncertain factors of relapsing epidemics.
Secondly, Li Keqiang said frankly after “Two Sessions” this year that although the annual per capita income of mainland Chinese people reaches 30,000 Yuan, 600 million people earn a monthly income of only 1,000 Yuan. Irrespective of whether he deliberately remarked upon this to show his persistence in his economic policy, these figures have been confirmed by research from the Beijing Normal University and CCP’s National Bureau of Statistics, unfolding two aspects of the issue.
First, the CCP claimed that it was determined to accomplish the mission of "poverty eradication" this year, but actual outcomes need to be further examined in detail. In particular, the World Bank estimated that mainland China’s economic growth would slow down to 1% this year with the unemployment problem getting out of hand, which would inevitably worsen the disequilibrium and inadequacies in economic and social development. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China stipulated that “individuals and corporate organizations making deposits and withdrawals exceeding a certain amount must be registered and approved”, raising concerns that banks are preparing for a tightened control over monetary flows and preventing capital flights. For these reasons, the perils of Mainland China’s economy and financial system may wobble the legitimacy of the Beijing regime.
Second, political struggles of high echelon in the CCP have been surfacing. When bringing China’s actual economic plight to light, Li Keqiang advocated the "street vendor economy" in the hope of spurring employment during economic recession. Yet his pursuit is believed to be in contrary to Xi Jinping’s maneuvre, thus was brought to a close by the Central Committee of the CCP. Such a divergence between the two top leaders halted temporarily as economic populism outdid political populism. Li Keqiang was even forced to "admit having made a mistake" in the Central Committee of the CCP, but the political ramifications will fester as the struggles among factions subsist.
The National Security Law for Hong Kong, which has been hastily reviewed by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, highlights the fact that Beijing has become panic-stricken when faced with opposition forces. It is no longer easy to get the CCP solaced by simply extolling "Xi Jinping Thoughts" to the "21st Century Marxism".
Yang Jiechi and Pompeo met with no avail
As for the external environment, the current cross-strait relations are tense. Despite the fact that the CCP claimed that the cross-trait situation is under its control, it is actually in awkward stalemate. The Beijing authorities know that if it does not adjust its rigid policy towards Taiwan, it is impossible to make a breakthrough in political progress. However, adjusting its Taiwan policy will offend conservative forces. In addition, the CCP is accustomed to resorting to stirring up nationalism when dealing with cross-strait issues, with the belief that this helps it gain moral high grounds. To this end, the "Anti-Secession Law" is played up again in an attempt to contain the hawks within the CCP and "Taiwan independence forces" so as to freeze cross-strait relations for a short time.
The U.S. containment strategy is another pain in the neck for the Beijing authorities. As to the meeting between Yang Jiechi and Pompeo in Hawaii on June 18, The People's Daily said that it was a constructive dialogue in which China stated its position in the development of Sino-US relations and sensitive issues concerning Taiwan, Hong Kong and Xinjiang. Translating it into plain English, the CCP was telling the U.S. that as long as it does not interfere in its "internal affairs", everything can be discussed. But the meeting ended up the two parties agreeing to maintain communication without any deals made.
The CCP puts up with the situation because it has to buy time for getting out of its internal quagmire. Regardless of the result of the U.S. presidential election at the end of the year, and whether the purpose of the U.S. to contain the CCP is to preserve U.S.’s hegemony or uphold the value of the free world, it is difficult to change the situation in which the U.S. regards the CCP as a strategic rivalry.
With the recent recurrence of chaos on the Korean peninsula, the unknown prospect of the bloody clashes on the border between China and India, and Europe’s intensifying vigilance against China and repeated queries about the CCP’s diplomatic policies, the CCP can only defer the repayments to debts of developing countries so as to consolidate its circle of friends. On the table, it will not stop counterattacking the anti- China operations, but under the table, it is buying time and waiting for a turnaround, which is an important combat principle of the CCP.
To sum up, it does not mean that the CCP regime is about to collapse under internal and external threats. In fact, in the era of globalization, international economy, trade, finance, and industries are inextricably interwined. If mainland China's politics, economy and society are in crisis, the international community will also be hard hit.
In balance, who will come to the end of one’s endurance first? The international community or the CCP? Before answering, the former had better prevent the CCP, which is prone to shifting its internal focus to the outside world, from taking drastic measures to avoid the collapse of the regime, and transforming internal economic and social pressures into international problems. As these three major perils may evolve into international issues, every country should stay alert.
(Tzou Wenfeng, China political observer)
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