China: ‘new Cold War on the outside, new Cultural Revolution on the inside’ | Wu Muluan
蘋果日報 2020/09/07 08:55
In order to understand China’s internal politics and diplomatic relations, some new vocabularies and perspective would be needed to comb through to interpret China’s situation in the next decade: new Cold War on the outside, new Cultural Revolution on the inside. However, official, China denies the existence of the “new Cold War,” or they believe even if it does exist, the U.S. has started it, and therefore the U.S. should bear the responsibilities and consequences.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on May 24, 2020, that, some “political forces” in the U.S. have taken China-U.S. bilateral relations hostage and are pushing the world’s two biggest economies towards a “new Cold War.” On Aug. 5 when interviewed by Xinhua News Agency, Wang reiterated, “We reject any attempt to artificially create a so-called ‘new Cold War’….” China’s state media “China Daily” has also published an article “Pompeo’s bid to launch new ‘Cold War’ to hurt the U.S.” The contents are all indicating the U.S. initiated the “new Cold War” because it is jealous of China’s economic development.
China’s unwillingness to admit this is the “new Cold War,” because firstly it doesn’t want to be seen as “Soviet Union no.2.” Chinese leader believes he can hold power forever and does not want to repeat the fate of the Soviet Union’s downfall; secondly, China does not want to give in to the fact that it was its own behavior that led to the worsening of the China-U.S. bilateral relationship. It believes the U.S. attacks China because it does not want to lose the “big brother” position, and therefore the people would sympathize Chinese government.
According to the CIA World Factbook, the average GDP of the Soviets was US$9211 in 1989 and the Americans US$21,082, which means the Soviets’ GDP is less than half of the Americans’; in 2017, the average GDP of the Americans (PPP, purchasing power parity) was US$59,800 but the Chinese’s was only US$16,700, not even 30% of the Americans’. According to the information from the World Bank, in 2019, the Americans’ average GDP (PPP) was US$65,281, and that of the Chinese was US$16,785, a quarter of the Americans’.
China’s economic discourse speaks mostly only about the total GDP and is pleased with itself because it is higher than in many developed countries. Indeed, the total GDP is very important, but to measure a country’s economic development, the GDP per capita must also be looked at. However, although the economic development per capita is relatively behind the others, it has not stopped China from giving up on Deng Xiaoping’s “keeping one’s talent hidden” strategy; on the contrary, when having achieved some results on the total GDP, it promotes “China route” in certain areas and even internationally. The dispute with the Philippines at the South Sea earlier was a test field of China’s neighboring diplomacy, which was also the beginning of “China ambition” named by the West.
The fuse that triggered the “new Cold War” was Hong Kong, which has changed the neighbor’s and even the world’s situation. How did this tiny place become the headline of international news, and even the breaking point of China and the West led by the U.S.?
First of all, it originated from the drastic change in China’s internal political environment. After Xi Jinping amended the “constitution” in 2018 and removed the presidential term limits, his highly centralized power system and the suppression of opposing voices have caused concern. As journalists from the West are usually unable to reach the scene to report the grassroots resistance, such concern has therefore been shown in the border issues. Hong Kong has always been a city where international journalists gather, and in an era with highly developed social media, all the protests and police brutality during the anti-ELAB movement in 2019 became the focus of the cameras and have transmitted to every corner of the world.
The huge gap between the rich and the poor, the surviving space of those in poverty has been squeezed, people demanded better income and to be redistributed, one person one vote (universal suffrage was promised by the CCP before and after the Handover). Those in power are using different methods to try and suppress these demands, all opinion leaders and politicians of all spectrum in the world can find a reason in Hong Kong to speak up. This is happening at the peak time of China’s centralization of power and suppression of different voices, when empathy is making a significant effect on international politics, many politicians know “Hong Kong today, somewhere else tomorrow.”
Secondly, it is because of Hong Kong’s historical position and its function. Regardless of whether it was during the British colonial period after Hong Kong became a Special Administrative Region of China, Hong Kong has always been the bridge that connects the East and the West. It reflects not Hong Kong’s status in the administrative sense, but areas such as economy and culture.
Sun Yat-sen’s era of “East and West coexist” has sustained till now and has given Hong Kong a great glory. But in recent years, the CCP’s policies and measures to Hong Kong are all aim to “get rid of the West.” From the criticizing of all things westernized to actively seeking integration into “the motherland,” and the introduction of many phrases used in the mainland, such as when the Hong Kong government criticized the U.S. as “shameless” and “despicable”.
In the second half of the year 2019, the CCP even suggested that Hong Kong’s problem was started by the U.S. and Taiwan powers working behind the scene. Regardless of the reason for this assertion, the CCP hopes that Hong Kong and the mainland cities will be vigilant towards external forces, this has effectively challenged Hong Kong’s “East meets West” characteristic.
As the frontier of the “new Cold War,” in the eye of CCP, Hong Kong must be more “Chinese” than any other city. From now on, all fields including education and culture, Hong Kong will be playing a more “red” role, especially the “mature and professional” side of the economy when dealing with the international world; if the “red and professional” has been successfully implemented, Hong Kong can then be the “wooden horse” of the western world, with its infiltration power much stronger than Confucius Institutes.
This was exactly one of the reasons the western world led by the U.S. has canceled Hong Kong’s special status. They have sensed that Hong Kong can no longer be the bridge, the differences from both sides of the iron curtain are significant. Hong Kong is an administrative region of China with its economic and cultural system becoming more similar to China (just like Guangdong province, which in the past was called the frontier of reform and opening up).
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, people believed the “Cold War” was over. But surprisingly, China, unassuming during the Cold War, has become the main part of the “Cold War” this year. China, based on Leninism “faces outside with the new Cold War,” carries the flag of Soviet Union and has direct conflicts with the West led by the U.S.; and it “faces inside with new Cultural Revolution” is to consolidate internal political situation, rid of opposing voices, create a “harmonious” environment, which would help Beijing’s regime to rule with stability for a long time.
Because after reforming and opening up, China has integrated deep into the world’s economic system, it is more complicated to have a “new Cold War,” with more subtle games from different forces. Furthermore, factors such as China’s political and economical situation and internal changes of the western camp would also influence the outcome. The “new Cold War” would not return to the route of “cutting ties completely” like the old Cold War, but its effect on the world pattern may not be less.
(Alfred Wu Muluan is Associate Professor in Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at National University of Singapore.)
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