Considerable attention and even anxiety are rising over the incoming Biden Administration’s foreign and economic policies. Thomas Wright, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution divides President Biden’s team into two main camps. This article offers a sketchy analysis of Wright’s insight and the writings by new National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Right after he won the Democratic primary, the President-elect abandoned what Democratic progressives, including Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, are advocating. Instead, he is opting for a “middle of the road” approach. But the spectrum of his new White House team can be further divided into two major camps: restoration (restorationists) and change (reformers).

The restorationists said Washington will have to handle foreign relations in a post-Cold War era cautiously. When dealing with Beijing, Washington has to act cautiously and d progressively, expecting both can cooperate on climate change, global public health and other issues. The restorationists are not active in ideological competition, and agree to return to the nuclear deal with Iran. They expect the U.S. to keep its role in the Middle East. Of course, the restorationists are not Obama 2.0. In fact, they have adjusted their positions given Russia’s intervention and Chinese human rights violations over the past four years. They pay less attention to Xi Jinping’s authoritarian regime and aggressive use of ideology to change the world order. With regards to trade, they don’t think the U.S.-China economy can be completely delinked. And their position remains unchanged toward globalization, economic integration, and free trade agreements.

By contrast, the reformers believe fundamental changes are needed to cope with the aftermath of Trumpism and ‘America First’ populism. For the past eight years, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have changed the international order. Xi is not just concentrating power. He is in fact a dictator. He is deploying modern technology, in particular, AI faces recognition, for the control of freedom, massive surveillance and political repression. Concentration camps are built to detain ethnic minorities in Xinjiang. Hong Kong’s ‘One country, two systems’ model has been damaged. His ‘enough is enough’ stance has led to a change in diplomacy.

The reformers who are more willing to accept friction with allies and competitive rivals are carefully evaluating the risks of Biden’s cautious approach. They opt for a more aggressive stance toward China. Cooperation with other free democracies is first and foremost in the U.S. foreign policy. They are willing to make new investments when dealing with China, but they will not turn back the clock to the Obama era for the sake of cooperation with China.

The reformers argue that only by strengthening science and technology can the U.S. regain its leading role in the free world. They have made it clear if the U.S wants to compete with China, it is essential to change economic structure, upgrade manufacturing, and renew infrastructure. They want the U.S. to partially decouple with China, especially in global supply chains, health care equipment, and critical strategic components. They seek a new international economic order and trade policy in lieu of traditional free trade agreements, focusing on international taxation, cybersecurity, data sharing, and new practices to empower technology and industry.

Jake Sullivan who is named as Biden’s National Security Advisor, co-authored a paper in 2019 with Kurt Cambell. The influential article Competition Without Catastrophe: How America Can Both Challenge and Coexist With China was originally published in Foreign Affairs. Both claim that technological development has turned China into an authoritarian capitalist state. With regards to the Taiwan issue, a smart strategy for the U.S. is to ensure that neither side across the Strait is allowed to unilaterally alter the status quo. ‘The island has grown, prospered, and democratized in the ambiguous space between the United States and China as a result of the flexible and nuanced approach generally adopted by both sides.’ The U.S. and China have distrust, friction, mutual vigilance when dealing with Taiwan. Similarly, the approach can serve as a model for the diplomacy between Washington and Beijing on a variety of other issues.

Both authors believe cooperation with allies is a way to deter Chinese infiltration and incursions. The cooperation allows each ally to join on their own terms and conditions. The increase in direct cooperation can protect the interests and values of the U.S.

Biden is a traditional establishment figure, who is expected to follow but not conform to a cautious and progressive approach in the Obama era. Though the first group is described by Wright as ‘restorationists,’ they are not expected to return to Obama’s policy. The two camps divide into strategies, but they both belong to the establishment of the Democratic party on the political spectrum, meaning they share a lot in common. On individual issues, they will get to merge and forge consensus. In an interview with NBC, Biden said his administration will not be ‘a third Obama term.’

Taiwan’s anxiety surrounding Biden’s diplomacy may arise from Obama’s over-indulgence to Beijing. Obama was indulging Beijing while Ma’s administration was at the height of its pro-China policy. Today, things differ sharply. Though Biden’s two camps have different views toward China, they share a common determination to resist Xi’s authoritarianism and ambitions.

During Trump’s tenure, Taiwan has received many unexpected benefits, laying the foundation to advance their bilateral relations. When the values and national interests of the two are moving in the same direction, their relations are not likely to be affected under a new administration. Biden will cooperate with China on specific issues, which does not necessarily translate into a reduced commitment to Taiwan. The Democratic Party no longer mentions One China in its platform. There is unwavering and bipartisan support for Taiwan on Capitol Hill. Scholars from nonpartisan think tanks offer advice to Biden. All of these show we should be cautiously optimistic about the U.S.-Taiwan ties. Both are shoring up cooperation in trade, investment, technology and other fields. (See New Directions for Taiwan-U.S. Trade Agreement from the Apple Daily on Nov. 14. ) And the ever-increasing cooperation like stacking Legos will certainly bear fruit in terms of mutual benefit and common development.

(Peter C. Y. Chow, Professor at City University of New York)

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