Donned in a white chef’s jacket with black buttons reserved for masters, Financial Secretary Paul Chan appeared in a 30-second televised Announcement in the Public Interest to appeal for suggestions on his next fiscal blueprint.

“How can I cook to your taste, when I don’t know what’s on your mind?” he asked earnestly behind a kitchen island complete with butter, onions, lemons and a fully-stuffed afternoon tea stand.

The elaborate publicity blitz is out of sync with his office’s recent efforts to dampen public expectations. Had he read his daily feed of news summary, Chan should have realized what his customers have already ordered. And he is in no position to play Santa.

Over the last year, he has signed off $300 billion on fighting the pandemic and its ensuing economic adverse impact. That adds up to one-tenth of the territory’s GDP. The Special Administrative Region’s fiscal reserves will dwindle by the end of this financial year to $800 billion, or equivalent to 12 to 13 months of public expenditure. In the heyday, the buffer was over two years.

Given the gloomy economic outlook, it is next to impossible for the Financial Secretary to widen the tax base to replenish the public coffer. Nevertheless, Chan reportedly remains eager to raise revenues where there would be least opposition. Higher stamp duties and tobacco levies are the likely options on his mind.

The public, on the other hand, is far more interested in the spending side of the Budget. Last week, the Legislative Council’s Finance Committee siphoned another $6.4 billion into the Anti-epidemic Fund. The money is meant for temporary relief to operators in selected trades and professions.

Even tough vaccines against the coronavirus are expected to be deployed in the SAR as early as February, it is hard to tell when the epidemic will be under control. The economic aftershocks will be measured in months probably into 2022. The economic indicators are far from reassuring. The total retail sales in October stood at $27.4 billion, registering an 8.8 percent drop year on year or 27 per cent for the first 10 months of this year.

According to the official “Hong Kong Poverty Situation Report 2019” released last Wednesday, 641,500 citizens are defined as poor, or 3,500 over the previous year. The poverty rate is at a troubling 9.2 percent. The figures were compiled before the onslaught of COVID-19. Most families have now found themselves worse off than a year ago.

The latest round of the Anti-epidemic Fund will benefit businesses in sectors, such as catering, which have been crippled by the social distancing restrictions. The scheme is dismissed as far from adequate, as the public at large want the relief measures to be directed at individuals across the board.

During their consultative sessions with the Financial Secretary, legislators have called for cash handouts of up to $15,000 for every resident aged 18 or over. Some have also demanded that $8,000 be dished out those between jobs bypassing the social security red tape.

Others’ proposals are more modest. They want to be allowed to draw from their own Mandatory Provident Fund accounts to tide them over the long winter. Over the past two decades, the fund has now snowballed to $1,000 billion.

A total of 244,300 people are out of job as unemployment now stands at 6.3 percent. The tally is poised to climb further. It is not uncommon for the lucky ones who have managed to hang on to their jobs to be asked to go on no pay leave, or have their salaries reduced.

A couple in their late forties, for example, may have amassed over $1 million in their MPF trustees. It would be a big help if they could take part of their savings to ease their immediate problems in the forms of rents, utility bills and other daily expenses. Yet, officials have maintained the legal position that the fund is meant for retirement rather than emergency relief.

The most popular budgetary demands are loud and clear. People want cash. And they want it quick. Chan appears to be in no mood to entertain such populist calls.

In a blog two weeks ago, he wrote: “In the light of the fluctuating epidemic situation, while the Government will allocate adequate resources for anti-epidemic works, we have to reserve our fiscal strength at the same time to tackle both known and unknown needs, as well as to maintain Hong Kong’s financial stability, which is particularly important amid the changing external environment and our weak local economy.”

That is a long-winded way of saying no cash handout as pain killers. Austerity will come before generosity as far as Budget 2021-22 is concerned.

(Andy Ho is a public affairs consultant. A former political editor of the South China Morning Post, he served as Information Coordinator at the Chief Executive’s Office of the HKSAR Government from 2006 to 2012.)

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