Making Hope Happen, Reform is Right Ahead (Jimmy Lai)
On the evening of June 4, 2020, we were all “Wang Weilin”, the man who stood alone to block a line of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) tanks on Chang’an Avenue, Beijing.
Pressing on to the border, the Hong Kong version of the National Security Law boasts that scores could be settled afterwards, and charges in full fury just as the onslaught of the PLA tanks onto Beijing’s Chang’an Avenue. Knowing no fear, tens of thousands of Hongkongers came out with their candlelights, unfettered, blocking the threat of the National Security Law and irradiating the darkness under the claws of totalitarianism. It showed our love for Hong Kong, our embrace for freedom and the rule of law, our exposé of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s lies around the unashamed annihilation of the Basic Law and eradication of righteousness. If we kneel before threats, down we all go into eternal perdition. Our abrupt stance today brings momentary pain, but it brings hope for freedom. Hope is the only thing to power us towards victory, to await the CCP’s dissolve. Do not fear, the Lord is with us.
Under the threat of a post-settlement of scores, coupled with the Group Gathering Ban, it seemed like not many would commemorate June 4 in Victoria Park. When I arrived at around 6 p.m., there was already an array of cops, who were broadcasting the threat of “May be charged with unlawful assembly”. The CCP is a manipulator of threats. The Hong Kong police are basically no different from mainland police these days. Yet the threats completely failed, and were regarded as aimless prattling by the crowds awaiting the rally. With the group including Albert Ho and Andrew Wan, I left after starting the candlelight ceremony and attended the June 4 prayer mass at Holy Cross Catholic Church in Sai Wan Ho with Cardinal Joseph Zen and Martin Lee.
When the mass finished at around 9 p.m., a colleague sent over photos of tens of thousands of people, filling the courts and fields of Victoria Park while keeping distance. Hongkongers’ perseverance and love for freedom touch me. I am lucky to have been born a Hongkonger. When I was waiting for my vehicle, a lady approached me and asked, “Mr. Lai, is it true that Boris Johnson pledged to admit 3 million Hongkongers a path to British citizenship?” “It’s true, don’t worry,” I said. “Such timely assistance, how great!” Smiling, as she walked away. Ah, Hongkongers’ inescapable fate of fleeing and scattering. In 1949, coming to Hong Kong was to escape from CCP’s “Liberation”, only to have to emigrate to escape from riots caused by indigenous Communists in 1967. In 1997, people emigrated again to escape from Hong Kong’s return to “motherland”. Today, people will emigrate again to escape from CCP’s National Security Law. In fact, all we’ve been escaping from has always been the Communist devil – “Chairman Xi, who is dearer to us than our parents.” Is this truly the fate of us Hongkongers? Who else can we have faith in other than ourselves: If we stand we will not have to fall, we will not have to flee all over the world. Liberty or death. Those who will emigrate cannot be retained. They are not wrong either, they are just Hongkongers accepting their fate. Flourished under the freedom granted by colonial Britain, Hongkongers built a brilliant Pearl of the Orient on a barren island. Now, suppressed by the evil claws of the domineering Emperor Xi, the barren island may resurface – how is that not heart-wrenching!
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the US and China have been working closely since the Cold War, and the US had believed that with more interactions, China’s economic development would lead to prosperity, and the CCP would open up politically and democratically, to be more like the US. Yet this did not happen, instead, the CCP has become even more of a dictatorship. “Economic development and prosperity promotes democratization of dictatorship” has long been a cherished wish of the West, and they are now, like Pompeo, waking up to disappointments. This wish has historical basis: South Korea, Taiwan, and Chile all emerged from dictatorships to democratic reforms after gaining prosperity from economic developments. No wonder western countries had the consensus that the political opening of a dictatorship following an economic opening is inevitable. They are disappointed because after Xi Jinping came to power, on top of self-proclaiming as Emperor and reverting China to feudal era, he has been confronting the free world in a belligerent “Wolf Warrior” posture.
Yet, while the historical evolution of “Economic development and prosperity promotes democratization of dictatorship” has not yet appeared, it does not mean it will not. According to Darwin’s theory, changes in the evolutionary trajectory are often triggered by mutations. Just as Taiwan’s economic development in the past had leaned towards the middle-class, the 1979 Kaohsiung Incident elicited the deep hatred of the local people against the Kuomintang (KMT), prompting KMT’s mass arrest of elites from the opposition party, which triggered the awakening of the Taiwanese. The Incident galvanized the Taiwanese community into political actions that led to democratic reforms of the KMT one-party state. A similar situation occurred in South Korea, where economic development and improvements in people's livelihood led to the May 18 Gwangju Democratization Movement, initiating the reform of democracy and opening up after the fall of the dictatorship. The situation in Chile was not that different. Milton Friedman alluded to the stepping down of the dictator Augusto Pinochet to his acceptance of the so-called Chicago Boys economic openness proposal of the University of Chicago economist. Will "Wolf Warrior", Strongman Xi Jinping, being in power be the trigger point to the onset of China's reform?
40 years of economic reform in China have lifted the majority of citizens to the affluence of the middle-class. "Economic development and improving people's livelihood" was maintained in calm and peace, bringing legitimacy to the Chinese Communist regime. Since Xi Jinping took over as Chairman, however, his strongman stance and self-proclaiming status as Emperor have left him opposed and deserted. Not only did the Belt and Road and other ambitious projects exhausted foreign exchange reserves, his “Wolf Warrior” attitude has also ruined the China-US relations. The US struck back strongly with economic sanctions towards China: just sanctions on computer chips alone have disrupted more than 75% of Chinese production of technology products, fully exemplifying the extent of economic impact from US sanctions. With the sweeping economic halt brought by the Wuhan Virus, many jobs and enterprises were lost in an unprecedented economic crisis. Once the reserves are exhausted, there will be no money left to save the market. In order to reduce unemployment and save the market, Premier Li Keqiang has resorted to promoting “street-stall economy” out of desperation. Yet Emperor Xi knows no shame, and has adopted an even more aggressive “Wolf Warrior” stance in forcing the National Security Law onto Hongkongers, demolishing the Basic Law right before the world, arrogantly despising international laws and disciplines, challenging the value ethics of the free world, outrageously breaking faith with the world, and killing the golden goose, Hong Kong’s foreign financial trade, which would have at least bolstered China’s economic recovery. Emperor Xi’s contrary ways have brought China into an unprecedented impasse since its economic opening, and he, himself, took on a belligerent “Wolf Warrior” stance against the US. Li Keqiang hurried out with an indirect admonition: Hey boss, billions of Chinese people are still under the poverty line of a thousand Yuan a month, how about we stop picking fights like a goon! Li Keqiang's admonition was immediately deleted, a clear warning not to cross the Emperor. In response to the tough “Wolf Warrior”, and in order to campaign, Trump will impose a series of sanctions and punishments on China, which will further aggravate China's current economic difficulties. Will the Emperor’s wanton acts be the last straw that broke the CCP’s back? Even if the CCP does not fall, Emperor Xi will at least die soon, what a relief at least. Do not fear, the Lord is with us.
(Jimmy Lai is the founder of Next Digital, which publishes the Apple Daily and Next Magazine in Hong Kong and Taiwan.)
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