A provisional agreement was signed in Beijing on September 22, 2018, between the Vatican and China on the appointment of bishops for a period of two years. The agreement has just expired. Days ago, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian declared that the interim agreement with the Vatican “has been implemented successfully”. According to a source close to the matter, Pope Francis has signed approval for the renewal of the agreement for another two years, the contents of which will remain unchanged and Hong Kong will not be part of the agreement. To save Taiwan from becoming a bird startled by the mere twang of a bow-string, the Holy See has offered the reassurance that it is just an agreement on religious affairs which aims to save China’s underground Catholics. U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo is reportedly scheduled to meet with the Pope before the end of this month on topics revolving around the containment of China. Pompeo has expressed his views on the Sino-Vatican agreement in an essay for a religious journal. However, given that the Pope is still trying to be on good terms with China, the influence of the U.S. Secretary of State will be very limited.

A review of the past two years clearly demonstrated that the Holy See has made considerable sacrifices in order to achieve the unity of the Chinese Church. As a gesture of goodwill, Pope Francis recognised eight Chinese bishops appointed by Beijing immediately after the signing of the provisional agreement. Subsequently, the Holy See stayed silent about the happenings in Hong Kong. On January 5, 2019, a retired cardinal was made acting head of the Hong Kong diocese instead of auxiliary bishop Joseph Ha Chi Shing because of the latter’s pro-democracy stance. It is obvious that the Holy See will not go against the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in order not to jeopardize the interim agreement concluded with “good intentions”.

The Holy See’s pampering of the provisional agreement did not stop there. As required by Chinese law, all priests and bishops must register officially with the Chinese authorities and signed a document which recognizes the Chinese principles of the Catholic Church but incompatible with their pledge of loyalty to the Pope. Against this background, in order to accelerate the unity of the Chinese Church, the Holy See, on one hand, called on the CCP on June 28, 2019, to refrain from intimidating Catholics who worship at underground churches; on the other hand, it issued "Pastoral guidelines of the Holy See concerning the civil registration of clergy in China " which permits the clergy to register civilly, as long as the priest or bishop will clarify in writing or orally that he acts without failing in his duty to remain faithful to the principles of Catholic doctrine. Such clarification can be made even in the absence of a witness, thus helping the clergy out of predicament.

Beijing is not without dread and will try all means to extend the provisional agreement. This is evident from its attempt to hack into Vatican computers and access confidential email and documents which elucidate Holy See’s views on the prospect of the agreement and Hong Kong. Beijing has compromised and appeased the Pope. According to the New York Times, on August 26, 2019, Bishop Yao Shun was ordained in Inner Mongolia, China, with the joint approval of the Pope and Beijing. Yao was approved by the Vatican to serve as a bishop as early as 2010, but Beijing did not give the green light until then. In addition to approving Bishop Yao, the Chinese authorities allowed a member of the underground church, Bishop Du Jiang, to attend the consecration ceremony, a tacit form of approval for Bishop Du’s status. But at that time, the Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association did not highlight the interim agreement reached between the Vatican and Beijing.

On the other hand, according to an interview of Father Matthew Chu Li-teh who has been thrown in jail by the CCP, Chinese government’s suppression of religious freedom did not lessen after the signing of the provisional agreement. Clergy and followers of the House Churches and Three-Self Churches have been subject to persecution. On the pretext of the provisional agreement, all underground bishops were required to swear allegiance to the CCP and join the Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association. In a meeting with the Pope, Father Matthew conveyed the news that the Chinese Catholic Church was still suffering and the Pope also expressed that he would continue to pray for the Chinese Church. In fact, the wise Pope admitted in an interview as early as September 26, 2018, that followers of underground churches in China are going to suffer because of the agreement. Hence it is obvious that the Pope will continue to pursue the unity of the Chinese Church regardless of the sufferings of the believers.

As a result of the sinicization of religion in China which requires believers to be loyal to the Chinese government before their own religious beliefs, renewal of the provisional agreement will be no surprise. In the foreseeable future, the Holy See will likely refrain from interfering with the religious affairs in China and will be submissive to CCP’s coercion of underground churches. The Vatican will accommodate China’s policies and actions to a large extent and that is its price to pay for the successful implementation of the agreement. The Pope is keen on maintaining ties with China whereas China, in facing global backlash, will likely choose to befriend the Holy See for its massive soft power. Whether the two will develop a lasting and enhanced relationship is worthy of attention.

(Chang Meng-jen, associate professor and director of the Department of Italian Language and Culture and Convenor of the Diplomacy and International Affairs Program, Fu Jen Catholic University)

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