Shinzo Abe might have departed his Prime Ministerial office, but China can only spare the shortest of celebrations. Entering office this week, Abe’s replacement pledged to continue on his predecessor’s path.

Japan’s new leader, Yoshihide Suga, is an experienced politician who has benefitted from his years at Abe’s side. While promising to pursue his own diplomatic strategy, Suga has committed to maintaining the Tokyo’s-U.S. alliance, and to ensuring that Japan’s interests are defended against China.

Abe’s legacy will be centered on two foundations. His aggressive economic reforms, and his move to liberate Japan from its archaic pacifist constitution. While the former Prime Minister failed to repeal that constitutional convention, he has succeeded in significantly strengthening the nation’s Self-Defense Forces. Japan is far more able today, than it was ten years ago, to operate at medium range and with wide-ranging effect. This is to say, far more able to fight the People’s Liberation Army in the air, and at sea.

Beijing will fear Suga’s continued improvement of the Japanese military.

Japan’s 2020 defense budget was a record US$48.5 billion, and provided new investments in space, cyberspace, and fleet operations. On that latter point, Japan will soon be able to deploy F-35B fighter jets from amphibious assault vessels it has upgraded. Moreover, this investment program is specifically designed to strengthen Japan’s integration and supportive capabilities with the U.S. Military. Exactly the opposite of what Beijing would like to see. This means the PLA’s Northern and Eastern Theater Commands will have to retain significant investments even as the Southern Command faces rising U.S. Military operations in the South China Sea. Japan is bolstering its ability to effectively tie down PLA resources. That’s of significant value to the United States.

Suga has another reason to advance a more skeptical China policy.

Namely, in consolidating his relationship with rising regional powers and the prospective Indian superpower. Japan has already prioritized stronger cooperation with Vietnam, which is rapidly moving to assert its defense against Chinese imperial claims in the South China Sea. In light of Indian tensions with China in the Jammu and Kashmir line-of-control border area, it seems increasingly likely that New Delhi and Beijing are heading towards confrontation rather than cooperation.

Suga will take notice of that evolution in relations between Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi.

After all, considering that Japan’s high-technology energy export economy is in great need of new consumers, India’s nearly 1.4 billion strong population offers tantalizing appeal. Suga is thus likely to pursue much closer relations with India, expanding export opportunities for Japanese defense manufacturers and providing diplomatic support for India on its issues of concern. Seeking to make his mark in international affairs, Suga will view India’s vast democracy as a natural partner; both economic and political.

And that means China will face growing strategic constriction from three directions; India from the west, Japan from the east, and the U.S., Australia, and Vietnam from the south. This dynamic will facilitate political architecture against China’s interests. As Xi deals with a European Union which is increasingly doubtful that he can be trusted as a partner, it is not at all clear where Beijing will find diplomatic consolidation.

Ultimately, the rising risks Beijing faces here are of its own making. Had Xi shown more conciliation and respect in his international dealings, rather than arrogance and bullying, he might well have avoided laying the ingredients for the rising alliances against him. Instead, he has chosen to challenge the central foundation of that which has made Japan wealthy: the American led liberal international order. Facing this reality, Suga will respond in defense of his nation’s interests.

Will Xi wake up to the need for a more respectful foreign policy agenda?

Unlikely. Humility is not in the Chinese Communist Party vocabulary. Not yet, at least.

(Tom Rogan, Washington Examiner foreign policy writer)

---------------------------------

Apple Daily’s all-new English Edition is now available on the mobile app: bit.ly/2yMMfQE

To download the latest version,

iOS: bit.ly/AD_iOS

Android: bit.ly/AD_android

Or search Appledaily in App Store or Google Play