Hongkongers moving to Britain under the UK’s new visa arrangement could cause a capital outflow of HK$280.2 billion (US$36 billion) this year from the financial center, according to an estimate by the Bank of America.

From Jan. 30, about three million Hongkongers eligible for the British National (Overseas) passport can apply for the new visa to stay and work in Britain for five years, then apply for full citizenship.

Britain first announced the move in July last year, about a month after Beijing imposed a draconian national security law in Hong Kong.

The new visa could see 153,300 Hongkongers move to settle in Britain this year, according to an estimate by the British Home Office.

The Bank of America based its estimate on departing Hongkongers each selling a flat for HK$7.53 million – the average price of a Kowloon property – and withdrawing HK$217,000 in retirement savings from their Mandatory Provident Fund. That would cause an outflow of HK$280.2 billion from the city this year, the bank said.

The number of immigrants from Hong Kong is expected to fall over the next four years, the U.K. Home Office said. But that could still trigger a capital outflow of HK$588 million from the city during the period, the bank said.

However, Bank of East Asia senior foreign currency market strategist Alan Yip said all Hong Kong migrants would not take all their capital with them, while cash infusions from mainland China are expected to enter Hong Kong.

Hong Kong’s banking system would retain about HK$200 billion even after an outflow of HK$280.2 billion, Yip said.

According to economist Li Ruofan of OCBC Wing Hang Bank, Hong Kong has seen a daily average inflow of HK$10 billion from the mainland since early this year, via a cross-border investment channel between their stock markets.

Hong Kong could see more capital inflows depending on a global economic recovery and second-listing plans by Chinese companies, Li added.

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