Hong Kong’s growing number of dissidents in exile will be watching with concern at the way the world reacts to Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko’s brazen actions.

The lengths Lukashenko was willing to go in order to arrest journalist and activist Roman Protasevich shows how cunning authoritarian regimes have become in extending state repression beyond their borders. It played out like the plot to an action movie: a fake bomb threat was called and a government fighter jet deployed to force a Ryanair passenger to abruptly re-route and land in Belarus, where Protasevich and his activist girlfriend Sofia Sapega were arrested.

Airport transfers have long been targeted as a space to capture dissidents – and attacks on critics by authoritarian regimes on citizens in exile are increasingly common – but diverting a flight is an unprecedented action so audacious it demands a strong response.

A tepid reaction from democracies will embolden other authoritarian nations, many of whom have already attacked or apprehended critics abroad.

There is a long history of government attacks on critics in exile, but the internet’s reach and self-publishing power of social media means that it is no longer enough for dictators to have their critics banished from their home country. As the influence of those abroad grows, so does the desperation of despots like Lukashenko to silence dissent.

Protasevich relocated to Poland in 2019 but it was from there in his role as director of Telegram group Nexta, a major channel for communications during last year’s street protests, that he showed the influence those in exile can have. Where once a dissident had to rely on mainstream media platforms, they can now exert profound and direct impact from afar – especially if given safe haven in a democratic nation that protects freedom of speech and has robust privacy laws.

Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests in 2019 in many ways revolutionized the use of encrypted communications and social media in mass civil unrest. Now Hong Kong’s dissidents seeking refuge in democratic nations like Nathan Law in the United Kingdom and Ted Hui in Australia – as well as others in Britain, Canada and across Europe – have chosen their new bases precisely because of protections of personal freedoms.

As opposition voices in Hong Kong are silenced, the likes of Law, Hui and other Hongkongers abroad have spoken about their desire to carry on the work from foreign shores. They have also stated the ever-present threat to their freedom. National Security Law(NSL)’s extraterritorial provisions are yet untested, but it was telling that after the NSL was announced many countries –including the United Kingdom and Australia – promptly ended long-standing extradition treaties with Hong Kong. The recent comments from Secretary for Security John Lee on the first anniversary of NSL – that those in exile would be “pursued for the rest of their life by the Hong Kong Police” – made it clear that the authorities have little tolerance for dissent wherever it is based.

China has already shown its willingness to act beyond its borders. The 2015 booksellers’ case was one high-profile case of overt action – at least regarding those who were kidnapped from the streets of Hong Kong or detained when visiting mainland China – but less talked about is the kidnapping of Gui Minhai.

Gui went missing in Thailand in late 2015, only to reappear months later on the Mainland. He made what appeared to be a forced statement on state television in which he claimed to have surrendered to authorities, waived his rights as a Swedish citizen and was willing to follow the Chinese course of justice. In February last year Gui was sentenced to ten years jail for “illegally providing intelligence overseas.”

Beyond these headline-grabbing incidents, much of the foreign work of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is covert, as groups like the United Front and other arms of the CCP political and military apparatus seek to intimidate individuals and influence public discourse. Pro-democracy protests in Western democracies have been met with large and well-organized counter protests from red flag-waving mobs. The CCP is also well-versed in long distance threats and “coercion-by-proxy”, like family threats and digital surveillance through the use of spyware and WeChat.

A Freedom House report released in February this year detailed 608 cases of transnational repression and listed China as one of six countries “that currently operate aggressive campaigns of transnational repression.”

The report also highlights that most physical acts of repression involve co-opting host governments. As the authoritarian scourge grows – aided by the spread of COVID-19 and the predominance of right-wing populism in the west–­ this represents a challenge for those speaking out against the CCP: as the space for true democracy shrinks, so does the safe space for dissidents in exile.

Protasevich’s flight on an Irish-owned budget carrier from Greece to Lithuania on May 23 carried 170 passengers from around the world. It was not only a serious threat to those on board but a broader warning to western countries and anybody who values freedom.

The United States reimposed sanctions against nine Belarusian state-owned enterprises and is coordinating with allies in the European Union and elsewhere to develop a “list of targeted sanctions against key members” of Lukashenko’s regime.

The strength of these sanctions, and the overall response to Lukashenko’s latest stunt, could inform us of what the west might do when other authoritarian regimes – like China – attempt something similar.

(Michael Cox is a journalist and Hong Kong permanent resident currently based in Australia. He has previously written for the South China Morning Post, The Age (Melbourne) and Australian Associated Press.)

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