Disregarding the strong warnings of the U.S., the National People’s Congress (NPC), as expected, approved the national security law for Hong Kong nearly ‘unanimously’. Beijing has already taken a big step in Hong Kong. Hong Kong’s ‘high degree of autonomy’, as promised in the Sino-British Joint Declaration wilts. Mike Pompeo, the U.S. Secretary of State, certified to the Congress and confirmed that Hong Kong is no longer autonomous. Trump then responded by announcing various policies, including the withdrawal from WHO, revoking Hong Kong’s special trade status, and canceling visas of people who are with ties to the People’s Liberation Army.

It was estimated that the sanctions imposed by Trump against the People's Republic of China (PRC) over Hong Kong’s issues will come step by step. However, as seen from the latest information, the sanctions are coming in a much faster and more influential way. Trump’s measures will cover all kinds of agreement regarding Hong Kong, ranging from extradition agreement to tightening of dual-use technology export control.

It goes without saying that the U.S. is now taking PRC as an ‘enemy’ that poses threats to its interests, safety and values. Taking advantages through trades, bringing scourges to the whole world due to the mishandling of the Wuhan virus, manipulating the WHO, engaging in illegal spying, stealing of industrial secrets… The list goes on and now the U.S. accuses the PRC for violating the Sino-British Joint Declaration and Hong Kong Basic Law. And this accusation sounds similar to a declaration of war.

Emperor Xi has no chance to play second fiddle

A ‘soft-landing’ to end this conflict seems unlikely. The U.S.' strategy to engage with China has come to an end as Xi Jinping goes towards totalitarianism. U.S.’ policy towards the PRC was largely premised on the hope that it would lead China to becoming a constructive and responsible global stakeholder and also U.S.’ strategic partner. Yet after exploiting all the advantages and experiencing rapid economic development, the PRC attempts to transform the world order to its favour. This twist and the secret war between the U.S. and the PRC started years ago, which can be seen especially from the China–U.S. trade war.

To add insult to injury, at the end of 2019, PRC ’s attempt to cover-up the Wuhan virus and its manipulation of the WHO allowed the disease to spread all over the world. The U.S. suffers disastrously from the pandemic and it has irritated the U.S. and other countries. Beijing, however, attempts to run away from its responsibilities. It adopts the ‘Wolf Warrior’ diplomacy and even attempts to be the leader of the post-pandemic era. The high and mighty PRC even wants to take further control over Hong Kong by announcing the National Security Law. All the old and recent grudges forced Trump to impose sanctions to punish the PRC.

Inevitably, the political situation is expected to be aggravated. On the one hand, it is highly unlikely for China to back down. Having experienced the double severe blows—trade war and pandemic—Xi Jinping has to face both internal and external problems of the country. As the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the Communist Party of China (CCP) draws near, and Xi still wishes to continue his regime indefinitely, it’d be surprising to see him yield.

On the other hand, Trump originally maintained the lead in this year’s U.S. Presidential Election. However, the odds of re-election in the upcoming 2020 Presidential Election had once been shortened by Wuhan Virus. There were uncertainties as to whether Trump could manage to be in office for another four years. Furthermore, with the overwhelming anti-China sentiment sweeping all across the nation now, even from the sole consideration of winning the election, Trump is not to be all mouth and trousers, not to mention that his hard-line policies towards China since inauguration.

Taiwan has to be prepared for the impacts

The China-U.S. new cold war was formed after all those complicated and complex developments. The top priority of the strategic stakeholders nearby is to burst their bubbles, be well-prepared and make their strategic choices carefully. It is important especially for Taiwan, that is affected by this special yet twisted Cross-Strait relations.

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