The news this week that a group of uber-wealthy mainland financiers have quietly established a new political party — the ‘Bauhinia Party’ — has sent shockwaves through Hong Kong’s pro-Beijing establishment. Social media immediately lit up with both derision and speculation: could the party emerge as a major force in Hong Kong politics, perhaps even marking the beginning of the end for the likes of Regina Ip and Starry Lee? Or will it just be another addition to Hong Kong’s messy party system, disappearing into the spaghetti junction-like web of political parties with largely overlapping beliefs and goals? The latter seems more likely, but the story of Hong Kong’s tycoon class offers a cautionary tale.

Such was their importance not just to the city’s economy but to that of China as a whole, there was a time when the Hong Kong business elite was regularly consulted over government policy and even viewed with trepidation by officials in Beijing — such were the fears of economic collapse should they pack their bags and leave. But the change over the past decade or so has been stark. In that time, Hong Kong’s tycoons have dramatically lost influence, having been largely displaced and subsumed by red capital and a new tycoon class from the mainland. Is Hong Kong’s pro-Beijing establishment facing the same fate? That’s unlikely for a host of reasons. But be in no doubt: in establishing the ‘Bauhinia Party’, the mainland business magnates behind the project have parked their tanks firmly on the lawn of Hong Kong’s pro-establishment heavyweights. How they will respond to this challenge is yet to be seen.

Mainlanders who have settled in Hong Kong have historically not involved themselves in the city’s politics, at least in a formal sense. In part this is due to the fact most cannot speak Cantonese, which makes participation difficult in the rancorous, feisty debate and infighting both within and between the pro-democracy and pro-Beijing camps. But the absence of mainlanders from the nitty-gritty of Hong Kong politics is what makes the news of the Bauhinia Party’s formation so interesting. The withdrawal of democrats from LegCo and their likely exclusion from the postponed elections scheduled for next September means there is a swathe of vacant seats that are likely to be captured by pro-Beijing candidates - the only people allowed onto the ballot. This fact will not be lost on the party’s founders, who will be keenly eyeing up said seats.

However, any predictions of the demise of Hong Kong’s pro-establishment political class are premature, at least at this point in time. Having just dispatched all opposition from within LegCo, there are no signs Beijing is set on replacing the pro-establishment members next. Both prior to and after the passage of the national security law, virtually the entirety of the pro-Beijing camp has been on-message in full-heartedly supporting the law. That being said, former legislator Eddie Chu Hoi-dick speculated in Stand News this week that Beijing may view the current crop of pro-establishment politicians as ‘insufficiently loyal’, and that the launch of the Bauhinia Party may act as a corrective to this through paving the way for mainlanders to serve as leading figures in LegCo and, possibly, the Hong Kong government. Only time will tell.

The reported policy priorities of the new party are deeply unsurprising. They are said to include staunch support for the introduction of mainland-style patriotic education in schools — firmly on the Hong Kong government and Liaison Office’s agenda — as well as restraining ‘extremist forces’ in the city and allowing Hongkongers to join the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

This chances upon an interesting fact. The PLA, in addition to being the national army, is first and foremost the party’s army — ultimately answerable to orders from the party via its Central Military Commission rather than from an organ of the Chinese state. How then does this square with the party’s official non-existence in Hong Kong? As former Civic Party legislator turned ExCo member Christine Loh noted in her controversial book Underground Front: The Chinese Communist Party(CCP) in Hong Kong, “nowhere else in the world is there a system where the ruling party remains an underground organization as it does in Hong Kong”. The prospect of Hongkongers serving in the PLA in such circumstances is as patently absurd as it is deeply disconcerting.

In turn, this begs another question: could the founding of the Bauhinia Party by mainland Chinese citizens of the city mark the beginning of the party’s ‘coming out’ process in Hong Kong? It would be implausible in the extreme for anyone to argue that none of the founders are party members, given their respective backgrounds in business and the CPPCC(Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference). The fact the Bauhinia Party has already set out the ambitious aim of recruiting 250,000 members — which would be unprecedented for a political party in the city — has led some to wonder whether membership of the Bauhinia Party in Hong Kong could become akin to membership of the CCP in the mainland in the future. Again, at this stage it seems unlikely. But the fact that these questions are being raised at all is extremely worrying.

All in all, the signs point to the Bauhinia Party merely joining the patchwork quilt of existing pro government parties, as opposed to playing a starring role in the Liaison Office’s blueprint for the coming years. As satisfying as it would be to see Beijing disown the likes of Regina Ip in favor of stacking LegCo with faceless mainland financiers, it seems more likely that the new party’s formation will instead herald the beginning the process of mainlanders joining institutions like LegCo and the Hong Kong government, as opposed to them taking over and squeezing out Hong Kong’s pro-establishment elite. But now all the shots are being called by officials in Beijing and the Liaison Office, don’t be surprised if the Regina Ips of the world quietly fade from view as they lose influence and relevance. Every cloud truly does have a silver lining.

(Jack Hazlewood is a student and journalist based in London. He previously worked for a localist political party in Hong Kong and served as a field producer for the conflict journalism outlet Popular Front’s documentary ‘Add Oil’, which followed frontline protesters in Hong Kong in the run-up to China’s national day in 2019.)

We invite you to join the conversation by submitting columns to our opinion section: [email protected]

Apple Daily reserves the right to refuse, abridge, alter or edit guest opinion columns for accuracy, length, clarity, and style, and the right to withdraw and withhold columns based on the discretion of our editorial page editors.

The opinions of the writers do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editorial board.

---------------------------------

Apple Daily’s all-new English Edition is now available on the mobile app: bit.ly/2yMMfQE

To download the latest version,

iOS: bit.ly/AD_iOS

Android: bit.ly/AD_android

Or search Appledaily in App Store or Google Play