Well, the talk of “abandonment” of Taiwan is somewhat discouraging and politically incorrect. But it can’t be denied that Taiwan’s current status quo is in large part the result of historical contingency, namely the Korean War in 1950. The present created by contingency is susceptible to international changes. A number of scholars are in support of the claim, among whom the most famous and influential is John Mearsheimer. His “Say goodbye to Taiwan” was published in The National Interest in March 2014. His argument is summarized as follows: The U.S. should abandon Taiwan.

In short, Mearsheimer recognized the importance of Taiwan to the U.S. Asia-Pacific strategy. But he made it clear that Washington has no obligation to defend Taiwan, nor should it provoke Beijing with security commitment to Taiwan. China views taking back the island as its historical mission. If the U.S. makes explicit and high-profile commitment to Taiwan’s defense against Chinese invasion, it will refresh anti-America sentiment in China, accelerating the timeline of the U.S.-Sino conflicts. And it can in turn deal blow to America’s interests. It is why Mearsheimer argues that with the rise of China, it is time for the U.S. to “say goodbye to Taiwan”.

Over the past four years, the Trump administration has been playing the “Taiwan card” so obviously and frequently that the call to “abandon Taiwan” has fallen silent. Now with Joe Biden is ready to take office, Mearsheimer’s claim is resurfacing. Many have argued that anti-China is a consensus in the U.S., together with Taiwan’s strategic importance, including its geopolitical significance and hi-tech industry, all of these make it hard for Washington to desert the island. Now it is fair to say it’s time to say goodbye to the call of “abandon Taiwan”.

True or false? It is too complicated to answer. Let’s ask the question in another way: How can Taiwan not be abandoned? Indeed, Taiwan has its unique strategic role, which makes it difficult for the U.S. to desert Taiwan. However, if defending Taiwan costs higher (or becomes increasingly uncertain), the U.S. is likely to think differently. Another key point to remember is that how Taiwan views relations with the world and whether it has the determination to defend itself.

In addition to philosophical values, mutual benefits and interests play a bigger role in nation-to-nation alliances. If one wants only benefits from others without sacrificing, even a normal country will be abandoned sooner or later. Taiwan, given its difficult international situation, will not be the exception if it refuses to give up something in return.

The recent bitter disputes over U.S pork with ractopamine and Japanese food from nuclear disaster area reveal Taiwan’s selfish mindset: People just want to take and refuse to give. The U.S pork imports have remained unresolved for more than a decade, delaying the Taiwan-U.S. bilateral trade agreement (BTA). The Tsai administration has finally made up its mind to allow the imports, thought the move can’t guarantee a BTA with the U.S., it at least marks a new start. However, since August, we have only seen partisan battle in the name of food safety, completely ignoring the national interests

The same is true for Japanese food from a nuclear disaster area. The issue is related to Taiwan’s bid to Comprehensive Partnership for Progress in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which is led by Japan. Taiwan’s ban on Japanese food is hindering its participation in the trans-regional trade pact. Today, only two countries, Taiwan and China, are imposing a ban on Japanese food. If China lifts the ban before Taiwan, Taiwan’s chance to join the CPTPP will be lowered.

But the issues closely related to national interests have been completely lost in the public discourse. Ironically, when 15 nations signed the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), many in Taiwan cried out loud that we would be marginalized economically. But when faced with ractopamine laden pork and “nuclear food”, they show strong opposition to open up, even though it is important for Taiwan to clear the way to join CPTPP and to reach a BTA with the U.S.

It is sad to say that after many years of democratization, Taiwan remains unable to cope with controversies. Like what Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je has said, whoever in power has to lift a ban and whoever in opposition has to reinstate a ban. But it is the short-sighted and near-sighted voters that allow the partisan battles to get worse. They give the political parties, both in power and in opposition, every reason to flip-flop, meaning changing their mind after switching their seat. But if Taiwan only wants to gain from others without paying its dues, why others want to do you a favor?

Now go back to the claim of “abandon Taiwan”. Joe Biden is going to take office. If Taiwan is worried about being deserted, it should actively create conditions for not being dropped. One is to create new incentives by which the U.S. feels a need to protect Taiwan. Taiwan should also find a way in which the U.S.-China tensions will not affect U.S.-Taiwan relations. Taiwan’s public should demonstrate the determination to defend themselves, including raising the defense budget, review of the compulsory military service, and the restart of nuclear power plants. We can no longer turn a blind eye to these critical issues, nor bury head in the sand. If we do, and if you were an American, would you want to protect Taiwan?

(Huang Ching-Lung, President of Taipei Trust in Democracy Association)

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