Are China and Taiwan going into war? On the surface yes, as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been doing military drills near Taiwan Strait, test-firing rocket missiles, etc., and sending military aircraft to cross the Taiwan Strait Midline. When Under Secretary Krach arrived in Taiwan for his visit on Thursday (Sep. 17), PLA was doing drills again in the East China Sea, obviously to show off its power to the U.S. and Taiwan. This is exactly what the CCP wants everyone to think regarding Taiwan’s situation. The CCTV female anchor used “fierce soldiers, in danger of war” (兵凶戰危) to describe Taiwan, and said Kuomintang (KMT) members visiting the mainland is to beg for peace, which has “successfully led to” KMT’s boycotting on Xiamen’s Straits Forum, with a complex inside story!

Wang Jin-pyng, the former President of the Legislative Yuan was supposed to lead a team representing KMT on Wednesday (Sep. 16) to travel to Xiamen and take part in the annual show of united front that is Straits Forum, but the unexpected and disdain comment from CCTV female anchor Li Hong, saying “with the Taiwan Strait on the brink of war, this man (Wang) is coming to the mainland to beg for peace,” has caused an uproar in Taiwan, with people criticizing mainland officials of insulting Taiwan and demanding KMT to cancel its trip. Facing pressure from all directions, KMT, who was actually very eager to go, has initially acted very firm and indicated if the CCP does not publicly apologize, KMT will not attend. Then, KMT has once again been insulted as CCTV has only taken down the video clip with Li Hong changing her tone by saying she actually meant “pursuing peace,” that KMT was trying to promote cross-strait communication and peace. But no one has apologized.

Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times also argued that, although Li Hong works for CCTV, it is over the top to interpret everything she said as if it is from the officials, “give those media people some leeway, also when they did not express accurately. After all, they are not government officials.” But all in all, no one has apologized. But KMT, despite having been repeatedly insulted, still wanted to participate in Straits Forum, albeit not in the capacity of a political party, which means Lin Rong-te, former acting chairman of the KMT, would be replacing Wang Jin-pyng and going in a personal capacity. It only gave up on joining the event when it was once again being heavily criticized within the country.

There is obviously still a very large conservative force within KMT, who has not learned any lesson when losing the election due to its pro-CCP stance. They still believe by hanging onto the CCP, they would receive cross-strait stability in exchange and therefore getting the votes. Dream on! The CCP sucking up tactic seemed to be working 10 years ago because at the time, the CCP was still hiding its strength and pretending to be a student of the West, a friend of the U.S.; but now Xi Jinping is in power, this type of cross-strait relation tactic has been out of date a long time ago. The CCP’s attitude towards Taiwan is getting tougher. Deep down in the heart of the CCP officials, KMT’s trip to the mainland is begging for peace, begging to help, pleading for the mainland’s help to get back its political power.

Yes, the CCP insulted KMT on purpose because it has unintentionally got into the power struggle within the CCP! If Beijing was taking this year’s Straits Forum very seriously, then KMT still has great value for the united front (still remember the political show of Lien Chan visiting the mainland?) So how could Li Hong have said such a thing? Even if that was a slip off the tongue, not only should she immediately apologize, but the state-run media and officials on Taiwan affairs would also explain, then play the emotional “we are all just one family,” “our brotherly love and we have gone through a lot together” card in order to minimize political influence. What Hu Xijin said about Li Hong having inaccurately expressed and she not being a government official etc., is also ridiculous. All media within the country belong to the CCP, which Xi Jinping has emphasized many times; furthermore, she is the mouthpiece of the CCP’s mouthpiece, so everything she said must be approved; if this is her personal opinion, then she has made a serious political mistake which has destroyed the propaganda discipline, therefore she should have been heavily punished. But look, she is safe and sound!

We should say, Li Hong has got it right, at least she has said what certain central government leader thinks. Firstly, KMT keeps losing in the elections and is therefore no longer has much value for the united front. The CCP senior officials have been so annoyed but could not publicly express that, they have invested so many resources in KMT, but it is useless. Of course, the CCP would only blame KMT without admitting, the reason of KMT losing the elections was because the CCP wolf warrior is becoming scary which every Taiwanese wants to stay away from. Anyone who gets involved with the CCP (whether from the blue camp or Ko Wen-je) will be abandoned by Taiwanese voters. As KMT no longer has much power, Straits Forum has also lost its meaning, which means the CCP would of course use this opportunity to punish KMT.

On the other hand, the situation within the CCP is complex, and the layout of personnel arrangements for the 20th session of the National Congress of the CCP would soon begin. Xi Jinping is determined to rule forever, but Li Keqiang would definitely step down. So who would be the next Premier? Apart from “Xi’s army,” Vice Premier Hu Chunhua is also one of the candidates; Wang Yang, Chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), who belongs to the same “group,” would by then be only 67 years old and would probably be given a post like Premier or National People’s Congress Chairman. But would Xi allow this “group” to keep such power? In the past, Wang has always been the one giving speeches at Straits Forum, which counted as his achievement on leading the united front; but this year the forum has been ruined by a CCTV anchor. Isn’t it strange? Isn’t it obvious who in the CCP is in charge of the propaganda system?

It shows that the CCP has already abandoned the united front and instead, changed to military unification. But the difficulty and price have to pay for military unification is much higher than the united front. The U.S. has not ignored China’s threat to Taiwan. Apart from sending aircraft carriers and military aircraft to move around in the area (E-8C command aircraft has flown through the waters of Taiwan South to reconnoiter the South China Sea etc., and four B-1 strategic bombers have arrived in Guam), David Stilwell, the Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, reiterated the U.S. is concerned about China’s behavior and emphasized “the U.S. is always here,” meaning the U.S. is the protector of the area. Safe to say, Beijing may be having a lot of movements in the Taiwan Strait, but wanting to use force? We would have to wait for that!

(Poon Siu To, veteran journalist)

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