At midnight on Thursday Hong Kong time, Yang Jie-chi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CCP Central Committee and a long-time leader of China’s foreign affairs establishment, met with US State Secretary Mike Pompeo in Hawaii. Following the seven-hour talk, Yang and Pompeo respectively issued a statement characterized by a somewhat friendly tone and attitude. However, the fight and tug of war between Beijing and Washington over issues including the proposed national security law in Hong Kong can hardly take a turn for the better just because of one or two rounds of high-level meetings. Coopetition between the two countries, in which competition comes first and cooperation takes a back seat, is set to continue.

Beijing is currently in an unfavorable position on both the diplomatic and security fronts. For one thing, the Sino-US trade war has escalated to a technology battle, with further restrictions imposed on personnel and technology exchanges. The battle is likely to turn into a financial war should both countries engage in continuous tit-for-tat confrontation over Hong Kong. The scenarios depicted in Currency Wars, a bestseller that was all the rage about a decade ago, may become reality in China in a few years. When that happens, there will be huge political, economic and psychological impact on four places on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. All these may take place during the term of the next US president. Then again, towards the end of Barack Obama’s second term, there were already signs of the US consistently exerting pressure on China through national defence and diplomatic measures as well as public opinion.

Meanwhile, with China-US relations deteriorating sharply, there is not much Beijing can leverage. To be sure, Shinzo Abe would not want any hiccups for Xi Jin-ping’s trip to Japan at the end of this year. Nonetheless, the Japanese prime minister’s open effort to take the lead among Group of Seven Nations on issuing a statement about Hong Kong was a diplomatic move that has raised many eyebrows. After all, the Japanese government is known for its low-key, talking-less-and-doing-more style. If the statement was entirely Donald Trump’s idea, Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party-led government would not have been so proactive. It must have taken into consideration Japan’s own interest before making the move. Claims that the US, Europe and Japan are trying to calibrate a consistent approach towards China and Russia are therefore not groundless.

Russia can hardly offer China support

The national emblem of Russia is a double-headed eagle. Under pressure from the West, especially NATO, Russia’s strategy tends to be on the defensive side towards the West and offensive towards the East. It has flexed its muscles towards Japan and neighbouring regions by flying strategic bombers and reconnaissance jets around Japan. At the same time, it has sought to strengthen relations with Beijing and Central Asian countries through a series of summits and military drills. But now, amid pressures from Western sanctions and the coronavirus outbreak, the tough Vladimir Putin cannot but back down, mobilizing Russia’s limited national strength and military resources to safeguard the country’s strategic achievements in the Middle East and the Caucasus. Putin is unable to look after China and show support for Beijing even though he wants to.

Besides, Moscow had been in the grip of its most severe humanitarian crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Unlike their government, Russian people are not as friendly towards China and Chinese people. China would be very lucky if Russian people do not blame it for the pandemic. In the past, Russia was keen to form an offensive and defensive alliance with China and India, two other big powers in Eurasia. The idea was for the three to offer strategic support to each other: China would focus on the Eastern Pacific, India would take charge of the surrounding waters, and Russia would expand its strategic depth in the Arctic Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean.

China-Russia relations are steady, but Russia and India are also long-time military and trade partners. Of late, Beijing and New Delhi have been making a lot of moves because of the disputed middle and western sectors of the China-India border. Unlike the Doklam standoff in 2017, the clashes that happened in Kashmir over the past few days were bloody and have caused deaths. So long as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who took power as a strongman, remains in office, China-India relations are unlikely to improve. Apart from all these major conflicts, China’s economic and trade ties with the EU and Australia have not led to as much progress as expected.

It is against this backdrop that Beijing should indicate its core interests and concerns and then strive to resume cooperation with the US. The problem though, is that other than North Korea, Beijing does not have much to leverage. Pompeo attended the meeting with Yang to the accompaniment of high-ranking State Department officials in charge of US-China relations, but that was not enough to reverse Beijing’s passive position. Moreover, the tougher Kim Yo-jong is on the gentle Moon Jae-in, the smaller room for manoeuvre there is for Beijing, and Kim’s stance may imply uncertainties over her brother Kim Jong-un’s well-being. With all this in mind, where does Beijing find a strategic pivot to cooperate with the US?

(Hui Ching, Research Director of Hong Kong Zhi Ming Institute)

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