Chinese wolf-warriors dash through the Himalayan defense line (Fang Tiensze)
Is China and India going to war?
A fierce conflict broke out in the Galwan Valley on the border between China and India, which was the first time in 45 years that soldiers of both sides had been killed for bilateral disputes. It was also the first time since 1962 that sergeants had been captured by each other. The Indian side has confirmed that 20 border soldiers died, but Chinese officials refused to disclose the number of casualties, although China’s chief and deputy commanders were reportedly killed in the conflict. This year marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and India – marked by the blood of the soldiers.
Conquering South Asia via the Belt and Road Initiative
The two countries fought a border war in 1962, and later tried to manage territorial disputes through diplomacy and "Confidence-Building Measures" at the border. However, although both parties agreed to respect the "Line of Actual Control", they did not agree on the location and direction of the line, which led to repeated disputes over crossing the border. In fact, China's handling of disputed areas on the border of China and India has been gradually changing. In the past, both sides used to patrol the disputed areas and then withdraw to the stations, but now they often declare their positions respectively by stationing in the areas.
In April 2013, India was shocked to discover that Chinese border guards chose to camp in the disputed area of the Line of Actual Control. Fearing that China was trying to control the area, India urgently mobilized troops to the venue. The situation evolved into a so-called "tent confrontation" with both sides only a few hundred meters away from each other. In June 2017, China attempted to build roads in the Donglang region where it had territorial disputes with Bhutan. This again caused concerns from the Indian side which resulted in India sending troops to step in for 73 days. The bloodshed conflict in Galwan Valley was actually a similar situation. The Indian side discovered that the Chinese army was camping in the disputed area, and after negotiations, the two sides agreed to withdraw their troops. However, the Indian side believed that the Chinese troops not only failed to immediately abide by the agreement, but also even established surveillance posts. This in turn led to scuffles between the two sides and the casualties caused.
In addition, the incidents of Chinese soldiers crossing the border have been occurring with increasing frequency. According to the Indian Ministry of Defense, China crossed the border 273 times in 2016; in 2017, accompanied by the Donglang confrontation incident, rose to 426 times. In 2018, after the Wuhan summit between Indian Prime Minister Modi and Xi Jinping, the figure eased to 326 times. However, a report by an Indian think tank revealed that China's cross-border activities in 2019 soared to more than 660 times. It can be seen that China's attitude towards the Sino-Indian border issue has been gradually shifting to an unyielding, egoistic "wolf warrior" mode.
From a geographical point of view, China has been gradually expanding its strategic influence in South Asia through the Belt and Road Initiative, which allows "Chinese Wolf Warriors" conquer South Asia and loosen India’s Himalayan line of defense. Since the 1962 Sino-Indian border war, India has been facing the threat of a two-front war between China and China’s ally Pakistan. Immediately after the bloody clash of the Galwan Valley between China and India, Pakistan violated the ceasefire agreement and bombarded the Indian side as if echoing China. Recently, Nepal has passed an amendment to its Constitution in late May to include disputed areas with India on Nepal’s map. The outside world believes that Nepal’s unusual act of directly challenging India had to be supported by China.
Confronted with China’s wolf-warrior advancements, India needs to strengthen its defense capabilities and infrastructure at the border for protection and blockage. The 2017 Donglang incident shows that India is not a coward and it still has the nerve to confront China if necessary. In mid-August last year, India upgraded Ladakh to a central-administered territory in a bid to allow the central government to directly govern and build up that area for boosting its ability to deal with border issues. However, the Galwan Valley incident shows that the Indian side also needs to consider deploying international cooperation to deter possible security threats.
In the short term, India is unlikely to abandon its tradition of adhering to strategic autonomy and join a formal security alliance on the Sino-Indian border issue. But India can strengthen its "soft balance" as a means of retaliating against China. “Soft balance” refers to forming a temporary alliance on a specific issue, after which a common balancing method will be adopted. One of India’s possible options is to participate more actively in the Indo-Pacific strategy and the US-India-Japan-Australia Security Cooperation.
The next diplomatic battlefield is in the UN Security Council
India has been dealing with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue mechanism in an intentionally low profile manner to avoid provoking China. In September last year, India agreed to promote the dialogue mechanism to a ministerial level. However, this arrangement is still a far cry from the BRICS heads of state summit.
In addition, India refused to invite Australia to take part in the annual U.S.-India-Japan Maraba naval exercise in 2018. However, under the influence of the Sino-Indian border conflicts, the possibility of Australia appearing in this year's Maraba military exercise has greatly increased. Moreover, as India has just won the UN Security Council seat with overwhelming support, it is expected that India will make use of this platform to engage in more intense diplomatic confrontations with China. The future development of Sino-Indian relations are expected to proceed under the shadow of the Galwan Valley incident.
(Fang Tiensze, Associate Professor of the Center for General Education and Deputy Director of the Center for India Studies, National Tsing Hua University)
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