U.S. Under Secretary of State Keith Krach is the second high-profile American official visiting Taiwan within two months after U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar’s visit in mid-August. Krach is in fact even more senior in rank. The intentions of the U.S. are very obvious. For one, it wants to create more established facts, normalize contacts between U.S. and Taiwan officials and warm up the relationship between the two countries. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) may not like it but there is nothing it can do but be forced to accept it for the time being. Another purpose is for the U.S. to take the lead and encourage other countries to send delegations to visit Taiwan. A third reason is to increase international exposure for Taiwan.

Therefore, the focus and highlight of Krach’s trip were not on the economic collaboration between Taiwan and the U.S. Instead, it is to further reinforce America’s support for or use of Taiwan. The CCP watches and yearns as the two sides make sheep’s eyes at each other. In terms of U.S.-Taiwan cooperation, high-tech and strategic-materials are more eye-catching. But no one knows the details of the particular contents, which is certainly undesirable for the CCP. At the same time, the diplomatic community has discovered and the international civil society has sensed that recently some countries (especially Western ones), have shown signs of increasing research and presentation on the situation in Taiwan. This is precisely the U.S. strategy to offset the influence of China while promoting Taiwan.

With this trend, the world is concerned whether the mainland will accelerate the process of unification of Taiwan by Force. There are three points worth noting when it comes to this issue.

The attitude of the U.S. is that it does not want either side of the strait to provoke an armed conflict. Doing so will create trouble and chaos for the U.S. and cause the U.S. to become passive. As such, the U.S. will only balance and avoid the use of force to intervene. According to the current situation, this balancing act by the U.S. will reduce the chances of an actual combat in the cross-straits.

Let us take a look at the recent decision to make public the full details of U.S. President Reagan’s Six Assurances to Taiwan. Even though it involves arms sales to Taiwan but only to maintain the balance of power across the Taiwan Strait. This is only a “strategic balance” of cross-strait military power, not the actual balance of tactics, the balance of absolute armaments, nor Taiwan’s military balance against the mainland. Looking back in history, when the Chinese economy collapsed in the late 1950s, Chiang Kai-shek had planned to counterattack the mainland but the White House sent representatives to personally “forbid” Chiang.

Today, the American concept of arms sales to Taiwan is based on two major factors. First, it is to maintain the region’s military capabilities to help it defend from but not surpass China. Sometimes, the weapons may even be deliberately slightly lower in level than those of the mainland as an indication to Beijing that “the U.S. does not support Taiwan independence” nor does it approve the mainland’s unification of Taiwan by force. Second, the aforementioned is not a balance in the absolute amount of armaments because Beijing will no doubt have the upper hand, but a balance of the situation and interest considerations. If the mainland cannot conquer Taiwan in a quick battle, it will not only fail to achieve unification but also create exhaustion of resources, hence forcing Beijing to think twice before using force.

Modern warfare does not depend solely on military strength but also factors such as the diplomatic situation, finance and economy. According to the current situation, the mainland’s economy has been declining, and the country’s external expansion has reached a point where it is difficult to grow yet unable to retract. If a war across the Taiwan Strait is initiated at this moment, it will be absolutely detrimental to Beijing. In addition, the CCP needs to exert energy to deal with the Sino-U.S. trade war, an over-restrictive warfare to unify Taiwan by force would be adding insult to injury.

For example, China’s foreign exchange reserves seem very glamorous, claiming to be US$ 3.1 trillion, the largest in the world and more than double that of Japan, the second largest. However, if you calculate it carefully, the Belt and Road Initiative, other foreign investment, as well as the foreign exchange that must be paid added together are about US$ 1 trillion. Secondly, China uses the money to buy diplomacy, such as supporting African friendly nations which costs about 200 billion yuan (US$ 29.6 billion), and it is commonplace for loans not to be repaid. More importantly, in order to buy fear for the U.S., China must reach a trade agreement of at least 500 billion yuan or more, and it may be a bottomless pit in the future. In such a situation, the CCP can only try to maintain foreign trade and plunder from its people, but if done in excess, internal conflicts will arise. This is another necessary consideration apart from the military aspect.

Of course, it cannot be ruled out that the CCP will take risks and become reckless in desperation particularly with Xi Jinping seeking re-election in the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party two years later. Other forces may try to prevent this, and the power struggle will become increasingly fierce. In the past, when internal contradictions were intensified, it was the usual trick of those in the power of the CCP to change topics to divert the conflicts. Deng Xiaoping decided to launch a self-defense counterattack war against Vietnam in 1979 and used the war to consolidate his personal status.

Therefore, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has recently not only increased its military strength and accelerated the building of aircraft carriers, it has also strengthened tactical training for quick-win battles. If you trace the strategy study of the late General Su Yu of the PLA on the unification of Taiwan, it is not easy to liberate Taiwan. Even in the research of Deng Xiaoping’s years, an ambitious military officer who claimed that he could “conquer Taiwan within seven days” could not solve the problems of ambush battles and urban warfare, national uprising, and even problems related to other countries' sanctions against the CCP, including freezing the overseas assets of China-owned and military-owned companies.

Ultimately, if the CCP really uses force against Taiwan thereby creating topics or events to divert attention away from internal contradictions, it will provoke and trigger a civil war. Chinese people all over the world must speak up against civil war and oppose the exhaust of all resources to build up military power. Although some mainland officials have spread the news that any armed conflicts between the two sides of the strait will be “controllable.” Nevertheless, people must oppose it because when the CCP says it is “controllable,” it often becomes out of control. It is clear just by looking at how they treat Hong Kong.

(Johnny Y.S. Lau is a veteran political commentator on China affairs)

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