Of late, China’s military aircraft have been flying into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on a daily basis. That is without precedent. In response, our side has invariably broadcast warnings and dispatched fighter jets to monitor the situation, so that the Chinese aircraft eventually would leave the zone. This form of military interaction between both sides of the Taiwan Strait has begun to happen since the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) came to power in 2016. But now Beijing is advancing step by step, adopting a “sausage cutting” approach. More and more it does not bother to cover up such actions. In the past, Chinese aircraft used to enter Taiwan’s ADIZ occasionally, but now the frequency has increased so that their jets fly in every day. The scope of their activities in the strait has also expanded to cover the median line of the strait and even to the east of the line.

The boiling frog

The Chinese Communist Party’s(CCP) military moves to trespass on Taiwan’s ADIZ are a form of warning as well as declaration. They are also meant to peep into and gather Taiwan’s air defense intelligence. Our side has been responding calmly. Over the past four years, Taiwan has been able to safeguard its territorial security and sovereignty. The fact that no trespassing incident has ever triggered any dispute has something to do with Taiwan’s composure, as well as a lack of intention on both sides to stir up conflicts. Besides, the ruling party and the opposition camp in the U.S. government are very unhappy with China’s attempt to seek expansion abroad. It is the consensus of the Democrats and the Republicans that the U.S. should follow a Taiwan-friendly policy and protect the island, and consensus between the two parties is rare. Meanwhile, the U.S. military is keeping a close eye on the CCP’s military moves, probably because the U.S. wants to maintain the status quo of the cross-strait situation.

However, because of China’s “sausage cutting” approach that targets the Taiwan Strait and the island’s surrounding areas, the defense space of Taiwan is being compressed. Recently, the CCP’s aircrafts have trespassed on our ADIZ for several days in a row, cutting off another slice of the “sausage”. Beijing is actively seeking to expand its tentacles in the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. Its aircrafts’ frequent harassment of Taiwan could be a matter of flying past a preset route or part of a military exercise. Regardless, it is a highly-cost efficient thing to do. But our air defense force has to be constantly on stand-by mode and to send its jets to guard the airspace. That puts a strain on the national armed forces and its resources, and there is also psychological pressure for our military personnel. If ordinary people are worried about all that, the society will surely be overwhelmed by a sense of uncertainty. But if people are too accustomed to the situation, our national security will be akin to a boiling frog being slowly boiled alive without noticing the temperature change.

Taiwan has its restless side socially and politically, but things rarely go to the extreme, thanks to a prevailing sense of reason and democratic values and the rule of law that have been shaping the country over a long period of time. China, on the other hand, is a society that only has a veneer of stability under the CCP’s oppressive rule. An undercurrent battered into shape through an absence of democracy and rule of law and the highly uneven distribution of wealth in the country will erupt like hot magma when an opportunity presents itself. Meanwhile, politics in China is totally opaque because of the over-concentration of power. Fierce internal power struggle is accompanied by dictatorship. All too often, decision-making cannot be assessed with common sense. Predictions about Beijing’s actions based on Taiwan’s logic are prone to inaccuracy and can be hazardous.

Safeguard Taiwan’s interests

For example, based on common sense, one can hardly imagine any sensible leader or ruling party to do what the CCP is doing: at a time when the U.S.-China trade war is still going on and the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc, with different countries strongly condemning China for covering up the extent of the virus outbreak, the CCP, as if it did not have enough troubles and enemies, has decided to set a fire by imposing a national security law on Hong Kong and also run into conflicts with India at the border, causing many deaths and injuries on both sides. Also, with the Diaoyu Islands and the areas surrounding Taiwan, it is active as always and has stirred up some troubles. Beijing has completely deviated from its old adage of “hide one's ability and pretend to be weak”. What it has done is apparently not in China’s national interest. One cannot but wonder whether reason has deserted the policymakers in Beijing, or if things have got out of hand for Zhongnanhai.

U.S.-China relations will only get more complicated and unpredictable before the U.S. election towards the end of the year. Taiwan, being at the frontline of the fight between the two big powers, may inevitably be implicated if one side sees any advantage from a conflict with the other side. Even limited or low-level military friction or physical brawls similar to those between Chinese and Indian soldiers will be without precedent for Taiwan. One can see that Tsai Ingwen’s government is already alerted to all this, and senior government officials have become more cautious with their words and actions, lest they should unwittingly give China an excuse to cause troubles.

Nonetheless, it will be difficult to resolve the differences between the two big powers. Unexpected and extreme circumstances will gradually become a new normal and part of reality. When Lee Tenghui was in power, he claimed to have 18 different “scripts” on hand to deal with cross-strait situations. Now Taiwan needs to be equipped with more and better scripts, as well as good directors and fine actors, so that it can duly put on a performance based on a given script and in accordance with specific circumstances. Most importantly though, if things turn out to be different from any of the scenarios conjured up by the scripts, Taiwan still needs to be capable of improvising and protecting its security and interests.

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