As the hostility between the U.S. and China intensifies due to the approaching U.S. presidential election, Under Secretary of State Keith Krach with his team of officials in the diplomatic, economic, and trade fields arrived in Taiwan on Sep. 17, in the name of attending former Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui’s memorial service. Krach is the highest rank U.S. official to visit Taiwan since the two countries severed their diplomatic relationship in 1979, which bears significant meaning.

First of all, we must know within the U.S. government, the Legislative Branch of the U.S. Congress has the best relationship with Taiwan. Both Republican and Democrat members of the House of Representatives and the Senate can visit my country and meet our officials without restrictions. Therefore many can build a deep friendship with my country and speak up for Taiwan in the Congress. Many laws that strengthen the bond with Taiwan have been passed in the U.S. Congress in recent years, which is the result of years of hard work and dedication from my country towards the U.S. congressmen.

The same cannot be said about the U.S. Executive Branch. Apart from the Department of Defense, which is slightly friendlier to Taiwan due to its military strategy thinking, the other departments would follow the Department of State (DOS) in terms of dealing with foreign affairs. However, DOS and its officials mostly hold a conservative and cautious attitude towards my country, with whom the U.S. has no formal diplomatic relations with, and have always tried to avoid any official contact with Taiwan.

The unfriendliness of DOS towards Taiwan is, on one hand, due to its officials not willing to give Taiwan any action that might trigger official recognition because of the bureaucratism being in charge of foreign affairs, so to avoid violating U.S. laws and foreign policy, and triggering complaints from China, which has a formal diplomatic relation with the U.S., which would lead to damages on its own business and U.S.-China relation.

On the other hand, since Nixon’s visit to China in 1972 where he established the grand strategy of uniting with China to control the Soviet Union, then Carter forming diplomatic relations with Beijing in 1979, the pro-China power within DOS expanded drastically due to the U.S. diplomatic strategy. After the cold war ended, China, as a rapidly developing rising power, is increasingly influential internationally. Whether it is for actual profits or international cooperation, China had become the target the DOS officials want to win over and pay attention to for their own performance. Moreover, the U.S. business sector was eyeing up the Chinese market, and with the support of political liberal leaders saying they would use communication policy to pursue prosperity together, DOS had become the model government office in Beijing’s eye and faithfully performed “pro-China, distancing from Taiwan” policy under the curse of “One China principle and three communiques.”

And because of that, DOS, which has a strong pro-China power within its structure for years, became the brake that stops the U.S. government from befriending Taiwan. When the then-president Lee Teng-hui visited Hawaii in 1994, he was subjected to bad treatment from the DOS which had not shown Lee any basic courtesy. Lee’s later visit to the U.S. was also rejected by the DOS, but the then U.S. President Clinton was forced to agree after immense pressure from the U.S. Congress. Comparing with Krach’s Taiwan visit, it shows that the trend affecting DOS has already changed its direction.

One of the changes is that DOS no longer sees Beijing’s complaints as edict and dares to contact my country’s officials directly. The passing of the Taiwan Travel Act in 2018 has given the U.S. senior officials a legal basis to visit Taiwan, and Krach’s visit is the actual act of fulfilling this law and symbolized the DOS’s first step away from its decades-long self-restriction.

The second change is the DOS strategic change when thinking about China. Under the situation where the U.S. strategy is changing into against China, from Vice President Pence to Secretary of State Pompeo to Secretary of Defense Esper, have all heavily criticized China’s act of expansion. In May this year, the White House published “U.S. Strategic Approach to The Peoples Republic of China Report,” admitting its silence diplomacy on China was a complete failure, and pledging to change it to publicly putting pressure on Beijing. In July, DOS requested China to shut down its embassy in Houston; in August, Pompeo praised the Czech Senate’s Taiwan visit in his speech and the U.S. Ambassador to China sudden announcement of him stepping down early next month, etc., which all show the U.S. is increasing pressure on Beijing.

The third change is DOS’s willingness to acknowledge the value of all the advantages my country has and it has opened the door to cooperate with my country. Whether it is the Indo-Pacific strategy or the recent launch of the Economic Prosperity Network initiative, Taiwan can actually play an important role in them all, which can also deepen the cooperation of my country with the U.S. and other Indo-Pacific countries. In the past, DOS was always worrying about China’s reaction and therefore was reluctant to let my country to take part in anything; but since the end of August, when President Tsai Ing-wen announced to allow the import of U.S. pork, David Stilwell, the Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs then immediately announced he will activate the “economy and business dialogue” between Taiwan and the U.S., which will be hosted by Krach. This showed the DOS is finally willing to establish a systematic official communication channel. For the DOS, who takes diplomatic relations as a top priority, it is a huge breakthrough to take such an approach towards Taiwan, which has no formal diplomatic relation with the U.S.

However, judging by DOS’s announcement on Krach’s visit as only for Lee Teng-hui’s memorial service, and has not mentioned any economic and business dialogue, DOS still deliberately plays down the political element on this visit. Krach is also keeping a very low profile. Yesterday both parties chose to meet President Tsai at her residence and had dinner instead of meeting at the more political Presidential Office; The meeting with Vice Premier Shen Jong-chin and Minister of Economic Affairs Wang Mei-hua yesterday morning was also behind closed door to avoid media exposure. This is very different from the visit of the Secretary of Health and Human Services Azar in August.

This has highlighted that, while DOS is carefully making its first step towards Taiwan, it is still very much wary of China’s response and does not wish to overly anger Beijing. After all, Washington has no intention to completely fall out with Beijing, and DOS is even less willing to break off its relationship with China.

Krach’s visit represents the first trial of DOS befriending with Taiwan, which can not only relieve some stress from the Congress, but also put pressure on Beijing, which symbolically means a lot to Taiwan, but we must observe what actually would happen afterward. Whether Taiwan-U.S. relations would really breakthrough and upgrade depends on whether these visits from both sides' officials would become systematic and normalized. The DOS has carefully made the first step, our government should also carefully thread the matter and take pragmatic, low-key and positive actions in response, so that it can take this rare strategic opportunity and transform it to be a chance to fully deepen the future Taiwan-U.S. relationship.

(Chiou Yi-hung, associate professor of international political economy in the National Chiao Tung University in Hsinchu, Taiwan.)

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