by Lo Fung

There has been a lot of noise around the rumored District Council DQ (disqualification) action, but nothing ended up happening. The National People’s Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) did not make an announcement regarding this after their meeting. The most highlighted news from that was that the next NPCSC meeting is set for March 5 next year. Other things such as criminal law reforms or the appointment of a Han Chinese as the head of the committee for ethnic minority affairs are of little importance, and even trivial to Hongkongers.

Though Beijing has not DQ’d District Councillors or rectified the functions of the District Council in the political structure, it does not mean that the idea has been given up. Since July, the Beijing government’s policy for Hong Kong has mainly been to rewrite Hong Kong’s political and social order in every aspect, including social order, institution, legal system, and policies, such that power at every level is firmly grasped in the hands of the Beijing and officials stationed in Hong Kong. The room for Hongkongers’ self-governance has been squeezed to basically nil.

But since the huge win by the pan-democrats in the District Council elections last year, the capture of 380 seats in one fell swoop has swept up the footing of almost all pro-Beijing and Hong Kong commies. The pan-democrats and civil society have been able to establish strongholds in different communities and expand their networks and strengths to influence the progress of regional affairs. In the eyes of Beijing and the pro-Beijing camp, this undoubtedly poses a potential danger that has to be uprooted at the sources immediately; DQ’ing a large group of pan-democrats in the District Council on the grounds of the violation of the oath requirement would certainly reverse the failure in the districts and weaken the regional strength of the pan-democrats. It could even trigger internal conflicts among the pan-democrats and cause internal strife and division. Beijing certainly would not give up this opportunity.

On the other hand, the District Council holds 117 votes in the Election Committee for the Chief Executive. Even if that is not enough to secure a winner, the votes could still pose a threat to Beijing’s plan for the Chief Executive. Beijing has always maintained absolute control over the Chief Executive candidate, and will not be swayed by anyone or local political forces. Now that the pan-democrat-controlled District Council happens to pose a potential threat, it seems very likely and even imperative that the Beijing officials will reorganize the Election Committee to snatch the seats from the District Council. This could be an even more pressing issue than DQ’ing certain pan-democratic District Councillors.

Since there are so many “incentives” for Beijing to take action again the District Council, why has it not used this NPCSC meeting to cut the Gordian knot once and for all? One important reason is that Beijing still wants to see if its relationship with the U.S. will change after the new term. In less than a month, Biden will replace Trump in the U.S. Beijing is concerned with whether Washington’s policies and direction towards Beijing in this past half year will change. To avoid the Hong Kong problem further affecting the Sino-U.S. relationship, it is reasonable that the Beijing leadership wants to wait and see before determining whether to adopt the DQ tactic. Both power and the law are in the hands of Beijing and its agent, the Carrie Lam government. Any moment and anytime, the government could make that happen without rushing to trigger new disputes before the U.S. government changes.

Moreover, the negative impact of Beijing’s push for the National Security Law and the DQ of the pan-democrats are rapidly surfacing. Political, economic, and social order has become extremely uncertain. Whether personal freedom and safety, the free flow of capital and information, and professional values can be maintained is now a question. Not only is the public panicking, but the international community and investors have also reacted increasingly negatively. It must be noted that for Hong Kong to have a place in the international community, to be an international city that was once approaching the international financial centers of New York and London was all thanks to reliable order, freedom, and system that were protected by the law.

However, these have all become questionable since the enactment of the National Security Law. There have been increasing cases of bails not being granted before trial, and many incidents of bank accounts and capital being frozen unreasonably. News independence has been continuously rectified and weakened. In the eyes of the citizens and the international community, Hong Kong has become completely unrecognizable in less than half a year. No wonder the speed of relocation for capital, people, and corporates has continued to accelerate. If there is another large-scale political DQ, the constitutionally and legally elected representations will once again be denied. If citizens, international investors, and foreign companies further lose their confidence in Hong Kong’s rule of law and political stability, their decision to abandon Hong Kong and divest will likely be sped up. Should that happen, even if Beijing floods the market again with more piles of cash, the effort will be futile for Hong Kong will already have no means of playing the role of window and safety valve. In order to prevent the situation from worsening, and losing Hong Kong’s use-value, the rectification of the District Council can naturally wait a little.

Although Beijing has not taken the action yet, the DQ might still happen after the NPCSC meeting in March of next year. In the face of such threats, apart from expressing clear opposition to and protesting against the DQ, it is equally important not to panic, add confusion to the situation, and give up the seats. They were elected by voters in a fair and free manner last November. They shoulder the promises to the people and the voters, and cannot and should not lightly give up their seats along with the trust and faith of the people. In the face of the worsening political situation, the citizens are even more in need of representatives who can speak for them on different platforms.

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