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Beat 777 with 777 (Benny Tai Yiu-Ting)

蘋果日報 2020/06/09 13:14


Many people call Carrie Lam 777, which was the number of votes she got from the Election Committee of 1200 members in 2017 Chief Executive Election. In fact, 777 not only represents Carrie Lam, but also stands for the political power CCP can mobilize within Hong Kong ruling system. The same political force is also planted in the Legislative Council(LegCo).
A juncture has emerged in the Legislative Council Election in September. The drive to pursue democratic reform, if combined with the opposition force against CCP destroying the ruling system, could feasibly ruin CCP’s 777 political power in Hong Kong. If three “7s” come into view, such a goal is possible to be achieved.
The first “7” is the ratio of registered voters. The newly released voter registration figure is 4.45 million, 400,000 more than that in 2019. Based on Hong Kong population, about 6.35 million out of 7.5 million people are over 18 years of age. For the first time, registered voters constitute more than 70% of eligible voters. Looking at different age groups, new voters increase the most in the middle-aged sector.
In 2019, voter registration deadline was 2 July. Believably, a lot of people registered as voters because they were impelled by the anti-extradition movement, holding hope for the November District Election. The number of voters increased by 380,000 historically. But there were even more additional voters in 2020, and it is a question whether their political inclinations are necessarily an advantage to the pro-democracy camp.
Presumably, after the landslide defeat in 2019 District Election, pro-regime camp must mobilize extensively to push their supporters to register as voters, in order to turn the tide in the LegCo Election. Those they can mobilize are mainly above middle age. But look carefully: the last round of voter registration ended before a series of important incidents in the anti-extradition movement - 7.21, 8.31, battles at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and Polytechnic University.
These incidents have touched hearts. No doubt a great number of people who didn’t care about politics before, or even opposed democratic reform, especially the middle-aged, were profoundly moved by the young generation dedicating to Hong Kong their lives and freedom, and wanted to participate in changing Hong Kong. The safest and least expensive way is to make good use of the ballot. Some missed the District Council Election last year because they had not registered as voters. They did not want to miss the Legislative Council Election and so leaped to register as voters. The outcome is the historical high of new voter registration figure. The first “7” of 70% voter registration is hence achieved.

The second “7” is the turnout. 2019 District Election turnout hit a record high of 71.2%. Many voters regarded it as a referendum in disguise. Numerous unknown names from pro-democracy camp got ahead of those pro-regime councilors who had served for years in the districts. The votes clearly voiced the deep discontent Hong Kong people have with the SAR regime.
The LegCo Election in September will surely be another disguised referendum, as Hong Kong people have reacted to the CCP forcing through the national security law. LegCo election is more important than District Council election, as is National Security Law than the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance. The turnout should reach a new high. The second “7” of over 70% turnout should not be difficult to attain.
Disguised referendum for National Security Law in Hong Kong
The third “7” is subject to whether the number of anti-SAR-regime voters can reach 70%. Even in past district elections, the vote ratio of pro-democracy and pro-regime camps was only 58:42. Despite achievement of the previous two “7s”, and that the LegCo election is set up as the disguised referendum for National Security Law in Hong Kong, it needs quite a substantial number of people forsaking the SAR regime for the third “7” to be accomplished.
I have always had hopes on those Hong Kong people who used to be pro-establishment. Perhaps you do not support democratic reform. Yet, CCP is now violating Sino-British Joint Declaration, via its Hong Kong agents, to change “one country, two systems” into “one country, one system”, and destroying the high autonomy and the original system of Hong Kong. If you do not want the system to be further damaged, and you want to see Hong Kong in real harmony, voting for pro-democracy camp in the LegCo Election is the only safe way.
If pro-democracy candidates can run for election swimmingly, and win over 35 seats, even though they are all disqualified afterwards, by then a clear political signal will be sent to the international community - that the majority of Hong Kong people do not accept National Security Law, and the international community will have a stronger ground to pressure the CCP.
Under National Security Law for Hong Kong, all pro-democracy candidates could disqualified. But we still have a way to turn the LegCo election into a disguised referendum. Given 70% blank votes among more than 3 million district direct election ballots, the same message can also be sent to the international community. As long as there is election, we have a chance. In case that the CCP cancels the election, the fact is Hong Kong people need to do nothing, because by its own action the CCP is telling the international community that it no longer complies with the commitment to implementing high autonomy in Hong Kong, and that it brutally deprives Hong Kong people of their basic rights by banning the only democratic election.
(Benny Tai Yiu-Ting is a Hong Kong legal scholar and democracy activist.)
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