Editorial: Taiwan US snuggling up; CCP on pins and needles | Apple Daily HK
Will the United States sever diplomatic ties with China, and turn around to establish one with Taiwan instead? This problem might not have been an issue half a year ago, but as China and the United States went from conflicts over the Wuhan virus to various areas, as the U.S. Secretary of Health and Undersecretary of the State Department have visited Taiwan successively, as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations met for the first time with Taiwan’s highest-ranked official in New York, this one issue has brought the CCP on pins and needles. The CCP promulgated the national security law with so much arrogance and audacity, with the sole purpose of shutting Hongkongers up; but in the face of the series of positive exchanges between Taiwan and the United States, despite the escalation of verbal attacks and military intimidation, the CCP has not been successful, and the “Anti-Secession Law” might as well be a paper tiger.
There have been plenty of breakthroughs in the official exchanges between Taiwan and the United States: U.S. Secretary of Health Alex Azar visited Taiwan in August, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Knight Craft had lunch with James K.J. Lee, director of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in New York, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment Keith Krach visited Taiwan yesterday, and will meet with the President of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, as the highest-ranked official of the U.S. State Department to visit Taiwan since the severance of diplomatic relations between Taiwan and the United States since 41 years ago. On the other hand, the Sino-U.S. diplomatic relations have been plunging further and further. The Chinese Consulate General in Houston and the U.S. Consulate General in Chengdu were closed, the U.S. Ambassador to China left without a goodbye, and ended his term early to return to the United States. There is still no sight of the new ambassador, and the Sino-U.S. diplomatic relations have essentially been reduced to a chargé d’affaires level, the first time since China protested Taiwan’s President Lee Teng-hui’s visit to the United States in 1995 by summoning its ambassador to the U.S. back to China.
In the U.S., Taiwan, China triangular relationship, the United States is once again tipping towards Taiwan, with the root cause being that the United States no longer tolerates the CCP’s ideological provocations and encroachment of economic and trade interests, and has begun modifying its appeasement policy towards the CCP. The most direct cause is due to the Wuhan virus that has already infected 6.6 million in the United States, and killed 200,000. Such tragic loss of life, even if it was not during an election year, will surely set off a storm of accountability. It is inevitably that the Trump administration lay it on the CCP. Taiwan’s outstanding performance in fighting the epidemic has given the Trump administration the best reason and timing to re-open the door to the Taiwan-U.S. relations.
As Taiwan and the United States are getting more and more cuddly, the CCP is increasingly jealous and responded with constant verbal and military intimidation. When Azar visited Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) crossed the centerline of the Taiwan Strait to provoke. As Krach visited Taiwan yesterday, the PLA once again sent maritime patrol aircraft inside Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, not to mention conducting a military exercise in the East China Sea as well. The criticism towards U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo has gone from the “enemy of humankind” to the personal attack of “fat piggy Pom”.
When the Chinese National People’s Congress (NPC) passed the decision to enact the Hong Kong national security law, it also elaborately commemorated the 15th anniversary of the Anti-Secession Law and declared that no matter how Taiwan independence advocates collude with foreign forces, they will never change that fact that Taiwan is a part of China. If it is said that the formulation of the Hong Kong national security law and the arrest of protesters and pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong have indeed caused a chilling effect in Hong Kong, so much that the CCP has quickly announced its triumph with the victory of the legislation; then, obviously, the verbal insult and military intimidation of the CCP towards Taiwan and the United States have zero deterrent effect, and as turned into a political show for the party-loving and country-loving patriots. The Anti-Secession Law is no better than a paper tiger.
As a result, the topic of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Taiwan and the United States has become louder and more popular both at home and abroad, and not along the lines of a general trend, but that a happy ending is in sight. However, if Taiwan and the United States are to go ahead with the marriage, they would still have to face the risk of the CCP going berserk from desperation. The Anti-Secession Law has no deterrent effect on Taiwan and the United States, but the three conditions to use force against Taiwan: (i) the occurrence of events leading to the separation of Taiwan from China under any name; (ii) the invasion or occupation of Taiwan by foreign countries; (iii) the refusal on the part of the Taiwan authorities, sine die, to reach a peaceful settlement on cross-Strait reunification through negotiations, actually has a certain binding effect on the leaders of the CCP. If they violate these, the image of the “great, glorious, and legitimate” will be further shattered and will hurt the regime’s authority.
However, whether China’s military power can manage the task of liberating Taiwan is one thing, potentially harming the cross-strait, Hong Kong, and Macao from a war in the Taiwan Strait is another. Therefore, the best Taiwan-U.S. diplomatic strategy is neither the establish diplomatic ties or to sever the diplomatic ties between the United States and China, nor to push rapidly the East and Wester Germany or South and North Korean model, but to build up the diplomatic exchanges between Taiwan and the United States such that it becomes normalcy, to be followed up by the allies of the United States as well. Although this would make the CCP sit on pins and needles, it does not give it enough of an excuse to use force against Taiwan immediately, a much better option than the desperate last straw of triggering the three conditions to launch a military unification of Taiwan. Put it this way: the Taiwan-U.S. diplomatic accomplishment has become the Damocles' sword hanging above the head of the CCP. If it could refrain from a terminating slit of the throat, but to keep it hanging, it would bring greater benefits to Taiwan, The United States, and the global community.
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