By Fong Yuen

While it remains to be seen whether Biden’s Taiwan policy will be clearer, it does not really matter whether it is clear or not, or whether announcements are made. Since the meeting between the two ministers of the U.S. and Japan, Japan has hinted at its assistance in defense of the U.S. military, proving that there was a tacit agreement made during the meeting.

To its allies and Taiwan, there is no need for the U.S. to make public announcements. An internal tacit agreement is enough to settle people’s hearts.

Regarding the human rights issues in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong, there have been plenty of words from the U.S. and little action, while regarding the Taiwan issue, it is the opposite. The U.S. requests that the CCP abide by international rules and was ignored, therefore the U.S. is exerting maximum pressure on the Taiwan issue. For the CCP, there is the bottom line of Taiwan’ independence, and so the U.S. has been inching closer and closer to this bottom line, yet never exactly reaching it. Either the CCP gets frustrated, or it starts a war. Unless it changes its course and abides by the rules, the nightmares will continue. With the following six tactics, the U.S. has been rubbing very close to the CCP’s bottom line:

1. High-tech and economic cooperation. Major U.S. tech companies are vying to set up regional headquarters and R&D centers in Taiwan to boost Taiwan’s economy. With the simultaneous rise of economy and tech, Taiwan’s safety is ensured.

2. Export of advanced weapons to Taiwan. If the CCP invades Taiwan, Taiwan has to hold up for a full week before reinforcements can arrive. The U.S. is currently proactively selling all sorts of land, sea, and air weapons to Taiwan. There’s nothing much the CCP can do towards this.

3. Strengthening of official exchanges. U.S. officials are participating in activities of Taiwan’s official agencies in the U.S., Taiwan is not only setting up offices in the U.S., but raising its national flag, not to mention that officials from the two sides have exchanged higher-level visits. These are all enhancements to Taiwan’s international visibility. In the past, they did not want to provoke the CCP, now they are turning up the heat and slowly boiling the frog. Habits will become natural once they are formed.

4. Dispatch of military aircraft and warships to patrol the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. This is a response to the CCP’s naval and air annoyances in Taiwan. If you dare to come, I dare to respond. The more you try, the more I will return the favor. The harder you try, the greater my response will be. This is a declaration of strength and determination.

5. Gathering of allies to show support to Taiwan. The more allies, the stronger the momentum, the greater assurance it is giving Taiwan. When the allies advance and retreat together, it will be a greater deterrence on the CCP.

6. Assistance in Taiwan’s participation in various organizations under the United Nations. The U.S. has mobilized many member countries to put forth the motion to admit Taiwan as an observer to the WHO. With this as a springboard, there are bigger fish to fry.

Not long ago, Biden nominated two new senior officials, one is Heidi Shyu as undersecretary of defense for research and engineering, and the other is Chris Lu as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations for Management and Reform. Successive U.S. administrations have never admitted Taiwanese-Americans to such important positions.

Heidi Shyu’s grandfather was the deputy commander-in-chief of the Republic of China Air Force, and Chris Lu’s grandfather served as the Minister of Justice and Administration of the Republic of China and the President’s National Policy Advisors. Both have ancestors that were loyal to the Republic of China. Nobody would believe that Biden did not consider U.S.-Taiwan relations in his nominations for these two Taiwanese-Americans to serve as high-ranking government officials. The U.S. is preparing to sell a large number of advanced weapons to Taiwan, and is intending to assist Taiwan in joining the United Nations organizations. With the representative of the Republic of China to the U.S. being Bi-khim Hsiao, when necessary, what is better than to ask the three sons and daughters of Taiwan to “sit down for a chat”, and “get it all figured out”?

Coupled with Katherine Tai, the U.S. Trade Representative, Biden’s administration already given a few important positions to Taiwanese-American females. When there are plenty of female intellectuals with mainland Chinese backgrounds, and many elites in different industries, there is not a single mainland Chinese woman who has been appointed a high-level official position. The favoritism here is pretty clear.

The prerequisite for the CCP to start a war is Taiwan’s independence, but if Taiwan does not declare independence, does it mean that the CCP will never start a war? This will depend on how far the U.S. will go in its support for Taiwan. What if diplomatic ties are established? What if Taiwan gets the support to join the United Nations officially as a member state? As long as the CCP does not go to war, the U.S. will keep pushing. As long as the CCP does not abide by the rules, the U.S. will continue with its actions. CCP’s nightmares are never-ending, and the U.S. is calm as a clam. How long can the CCP endure these?

Since the CCP has drawn the untouchable bottom line of Taiwan independence, Biden will hold on to this bottom line. However, on this bottom line alone, there is still an infinite space for imagination and room to maneuver. As long as the bottom line is not touched, then one can continue to rub very closely against it. This way, the CCP has no legitimate reason to invade Taiwan militarily, for it will never get the approval of the international community. Will the CCP lose patience? Definitely. If the CCP starts a war before Taiwan declares independence, the U.S. would have every reason to assist in the defense of the island. The bottom line was drawn by none other than the CCP itself, and it is going back on its words. If the U.S. is prepared to fight, then it will not be afraid of a real war. Rubbing against the bottom line and never touching it, stand to fight but strive not to fight. This is Biden’s perfect plan.

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