By Fong Yuen

High-level diplomats from the U.S. and China are set to hold talks in Anchorage, Alaska next week. On the U.S. side, there are National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken; on China’s side, there are Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission Yang Jiechi and Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Since Biden and Xi Jinping exchanged words on New Year’s Eve, the U.S.-China diplomacy has been left idle for quite some time, during which it was clear that there were difficult negotiations. From the U.S.’ perspective, the resumption of U.S.-China diplomatic contact was just a matter of time; from China’s perspective, resolving Trump’s comprehensive decoupling situation between China and the U.S. is the most pressing diplomatic issue.

Ahead of the U.S.-China high-level meeting, Biden will conduct on Friday an online summit with the heads of Japan, India, and Australia, the four countries that formed the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which is mainly about the expansion and threats of the CCP within the areas from diplomacy to military, economics, and technology.

Early next week, Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will visit Tokyo and Seoul. The two secretaries will travel together for the first time, which shows the importance of Asia to the U.S. government. Japan has been a staunch ally of the U.S., while South Korea has found itself wedged between the U.S.-China conflict because of its geopolitical and high-tech strengths. The visit of the two secretaries to Japan and Korea is the dance of sword of the U.S., with the tip pointing at the CCP.

The U.S. is rushing to get a series of big moves in Asia before the meeting in Alaska, and does not mind paying the price of creating an atmosphere of hostility and disharmony. The CCP knows it is hot and cold, while the U.S. has no real expectations for the meeting. That says a lot.

Is the anticipated dialogue between the U.S. and Chinese high-level officials pointing to the conclusion of Trump’s grand strategy of CCP besiegement? Is Biden going to start blending with the CCP once again? Many are wondering.

Trump closed many channels of communication between the U.S. and China, and Biden does not plan to follow this path. The two adopt different strategies. Trump was all for a quick strike, while Biden implements the slow squeeze. Trump was agile, determined, and accurate, while Biden favors careful planning before action.

Biden’s China policy is all about one word: “slow”; or in other words, “wait”. “Slow” means step by step, and “wait” means uniting allies. After all, the ideology of the Democratic Party is very different from that of the Republican Party, and the personality of Biden is very different from that of Trump as well.

Due to the many promises made during his campaign, Biden has a lot of work to do. The virus, the economy, immigration, technology, and the military are all pressing matters. While climate, allies, and the return to international organizations could wait, they cannot be neglected. These issues have to be prioritized. Even if certain matters are not urgent, they have to be done. Sometimes even an act is necessary, such as the climate change issue.

What are some of the topics on the table for the U.S.-China diplomatic talk? Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia are all issues that will only immediately lead to arguments, or at least one-sided conversations; as for technological blockade, the accountability of the pandemic, and military confrontations, these are tricky issues to discuss as well. What’s left is nothing other than how to resume diplomatic contacts and to find consensus on climate change.

The decoupling of the U.S. from China was a fatal blow to the CCP. The CCP is keen on turning this unfavorable trend around. A return to normal contact, just like in the past, would already be the biggest diplomatic achievement at the moment. The CCP does not dare to expect Biden to make concessions in additional issues.

For the Biden administration, there is a need to resume dialogue with the CCP, and that there have to be results from the resumption of dialogues in order to show the citizens and Congress. What it can get from the CCP at the moment is in reality only the issue of climate change. From this, it can be deduced that even if there will be results from this anticipated high-level talk between the U.S. and China, they will only be in the areas of the resumption of diplomacy and climate change.

From the lens of the interests of the U.S., getting the CCP to cooperate on the issue of climate change is not a bad thing. As long as the U.S. is willing to resume diplomatic contact, the CCP should be happy with what it gets at this point. By the same token, a certain level of cooperation on the issue of climate change with the U.S. is a necessary need for the CCP’s own economic development, which can also serve as an act of goodwill to the U.S. Both sides give a little, take a little. We will deal with the future when it comes.

Looking at the Alaska meeting alone, the conclusion that Biden is preparing to blend with the CCP might be drawn, however, if the political activities happening on the U.S. end prior to the meeting is thrown into the mix, the conclusion might change – if one is preparing to blend, why bother to operate at this scale in Asia? Blinken said that between the U.S. and China, when the two compete, they compete; when the two cooperate, they cooperate; and when there has to be a confrontation, the two confront. This probably better outlines Biden’s China policy.

In summary, if one concludes that the Biden administration wants to be chummy again with the CCP, it is a jump to conclusion. The U.S.-China relations are volatile, and we ought to wait and see.

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