British Prime Minister Boris Johnson this week unveiled a new defense and foreign policy strategy. While the strategy reemphasizes Britain’s commitment to the U.S.-led democratic international order, it also extends a not-so-subtle olive branch to Beijing.

The best evidence for this branch comes with Johnson’s pledge that Britain “will continue to pursue a positive economic relationship, including deeper trade links and more Chinese investment in the UK.”

Reading between the lines, it’s clear that the Prime Minister intends to qualify his constraint of the Communist Party’s global and domestic aggressions. We can say that with confidence, in that the British government is well aware of China’s direct tying of trade links to other foreign policy issues. Johnson wouldn’t have openly identified an interest in “deeper” trade links and “more” investment were he not also willing to pay the political price for those links.

Take China’s current attitude towards Australia, for example.

Infuriated by Australia’s support of U.S. efforts to reject Xi Jinping’s imperial claims in the South China Sea, and its condemnation of Xi’s human rights policies, Australia is now suffering under a Communist trade war. The communists don’t even try to hide their association of trade with Australia’s policy activity in other areas. When asked about whether its tariffs and import restrictions are punishment for Australia’s policies in other areas, foreign ministry spokespersons respond by stating that Australia must reconsider whether it wants cooperation or confrontation.

Johnson’s new statement suggests that he wants to ensure Britain doesn’t suffer the same fate as Australia.

The problem with this approach is that it will rightly fuel the Communists’ confidence that the British government is unwilling to challenge their more extreme behavior. I would expect that Johnson’s stated interest in increased Chinese investment will lead him to qualify the upcoming deployment of the Royal Navy’s HMS Queen Elizabeth II aircraft carrier to the South China Sea. It is unlikely, for example, that the aircraft carrier will enter within the 12-mile limit of any of the islands that China claims in this area. This is just one example, but it encapsulates the nuances that we’re likely to see from Britain going forwards.

Certainly, this statement will be a disappointment to the Biden administration.

As reflected by the visits this week of Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to Japan and South Korea, the new U.S. administration has prioritized a stronger security infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific. Washington will be disappointed that the British are now, even if indirectly, qualifying their support for these efforts. To be sure, intelligence and military-to-military cooperation between Britain and America will remain very close. But if China believes that Johnson’s decisions on critical issues can be leveraged against trade concerns, Xi will take full advantage of that opportunity. This will cause tensions between London and Washington.

The ultimate question, then, is how far will Johnson be willing to go to earn China’s investment favor?

Will he overturn UK bans on Chinese technology companies such as Huawei? Will Johnson allow for the Chinese Communist Party’s increased lobbying and media activity on British soil? Will he reduce the British intelligence community’s pressure on Chinese espionage efforts? Will Johnson grow quieter on the human rights situations in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and the Chinese mainland? Will he abstain from UN votes that risk sparking Communist sensitivities?

Whatever Johnson decides to do, or not do, Xi will look at his strategy statement this week as evidence for something exciting. Namely, that Britain appears to have gone wobbly in its willingness to challenge Communist aggression.

(Tom Rogan, Washington Examiner foreign policy writer)

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