Rumor has flown around in recent days that Michael William Studeman, director of the J2 (which oversees intelligence at the US military’s Indo-Pacific Command) and a two-star Navy admiral, has made a low-key visit to Taiwan in a flash. Particularly because of its low-key nature, the visit has led to media hype and triggered an outburst of discussions about security cooperation between Taiwan and the US as well as the Indo-Pacific strategy. In this essay, I am offering several observations from the perspectives of Taiwan-US bilateral relations, the Indo-Pacific and Europe.

Studeman’s visit to Taiwan was different from those by other US officials recently. Previous visitors such as Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar, Undersecretary of State Keith J. Krach and Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency Andrew Wheeler (Mr. Wheeler’s visit has been canceled) are responsible for core matters such as health, economic development and environmental protection, which in international politics are cross-border issues for which cooperation is emphasized. As they are in the non-traditional domain of security, they are not sensitive issues. Studeman, however, is responsible for military intelligence, which is in the traditional domain of defense and military security. This is an extremely sensitive field in international relations. In other words, not only has the number of visits by high-ranking officials in the Trump administration increased quantitatively, but there has also been some qualitative enhancement and change.

In the US Department of Defense’s Indo-Pacific Strategy Report (IPSR) published in June 2019, “Taiwan” is mentioned 30 times. Elaborating on the importance of the strategic relations between Taiwan and the US, the report even says that “The United States has a vital interest in upholding the rules-based international order, which includes a strong, prosperous, and democratic Taiwan.” It even calls Taiwan a “country”. In November 2019, the US Department of State said in a report called “A Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Advancing a Shared Vision” that the US is concerned about Beijing’s actions to bully Taiwan through military maneuvers, saying that the US supports an effective deterrence capability for Taiwan through the sale of critical defense equipment.

Therefore, the area of intelligence for which Studeman is responsible means that the de facto alliance between Taiwan and the US on Indo-Pacific regional security cooperation will strengthen. The Trump administration will not only maintain strategic ambiguity in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act, but also enhance “strategic clarity” through massive arms sales and high-ranking government officials’ visits to Taiwan in turns. The clearer the strategy, the less the strategic ambiguity, and this will help deter the PLA from invading Taiwan.

Furthermore, among those visiting with Studeman is a high-ranking official who is familiar with relations with Japan and India. This indicates the US’s intention to enhance the military partnership between the US, Japan, India and Australia. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue held between the US, Japan, India and Australia in October 2020 was aimed at forging a close partnership on security, the ultimate objective being the maintenance of “a free and open Indo-Pacific”.

According to US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, the lack of a strong multilateral structure in the Indo-Pacific means that it is necessary to create an organization based on four countries as anchors and expand it by adding other members to deal with the challenges posed by China. It is reasonable to imagine that these “other members” will include Taiwan. Particularly noteworthy is the fact that of the weapons and combat platforms Trump has sold to Taiwan in recent years, many are related to satellite positioning and inertial positioning systems and the weapon data link. These systems can improve the accuracy of terminal guidance and target choice. To fully utilize the capabilities of these weapons and platforms, the prerequisite is close intelligence sharing.

Apart from that, the US and India also signed a Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) earlier this month. The two countries will share sensitive satellite data to counter the continued expansion of China. The US is already in a long-term military alliance with Japan and Australia and the intelligence sharing mechanism is already institutionalized. Studeman’s visit to Taiwan has made the last piece of the jigsaw, i.e. Taiwan, fall into place. It will help create and strengthen an intelligence-sharing mechanism in the Indo-Pacific and lay the foundations for an Indo-Pacific NATO.

Since Xi Jinping came to power in 2013, he has been, through communist infiltration, economic and trade links, military expansion, the Belt and Road Initiative and wolf-warrior diplomacy, attempting to bring Europe within China’s sphere of geopolitical influence. In light of this, the European Union began to regard China as an “economic and strategic competitor” in 2019. Later, the global pandemic caused by the Wuhan coronavirus and China’s barbaric actions against Xinjiang and Hong Kong have greatly worsened European people’s repugnance for China, which resulted in the “Dialogue on China” launched by the US Department of State and the EU.

Furthermore, in 2019 NATO said for the first time that China poses a “challenge”. France and Germany, the two major powers in continental Europe, announced their Indo-Pacific strategies in May 2019 and September 2020 respectively. The German government sees the Indo-Pacific, particularly its supply chain and international sea lanes, as its economic lifeline. The Indo-Pacific will become the top issue for Germany’s diplomacy.

As for whether the Biden administration will stick to Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy, it will depend on how Biden and his administration will treat China strategically. Biden has openly stressed that Russia is a threat to the US while China is the greatest competitor. He has also said that he will cooperate with China on public health and environmental protection. It might not come as a surprise if Biden takes a “strategically ambiguous” and “tactically ambiguous” approach towards Taiwan.

(Lin Tai-Ho is a professor at National Chung Cheng University’s Institute of Strategic and International Affairs.)

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